Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures
Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures
复制标题
迈向生物多样性和人类更美好的未来：模拟自然未来
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681
复制
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kim H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim H
自然未来框架（NFF）是一种启发式工具，用于共同为自然和人类创造积极的未来。它主要通过三种自然价值观-自然为自然、自然为社会和自然为文化-来寻求开辟未来的多样性。本文介绍了如何NFF可以应用于建模，以支持决策。首先，我们描述了NFF在开发定性和定量场景时的关键考虑因素：i）对自然的多重价值观，作为一个状态空间，其中可以代表改善自然走向前沿的途径，ii）相互加强对自然保护和人类福祉至关重要的社会生态系统的关键反馈，㈢描述复杂社会生态动态演变的多种知识系统的指标。然后，我们提出了三种方法来模拟自然未来的情景在审查，筛选和设计阶段的政策过程。本文旨在促进在模型中整合自然的相关价值，并加强生物多样性、自然对人类的贡献和生活质量之间的模型联系。
The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.