Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic
Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic
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DOI：
10.1038/oby.2008.351
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发表时间：
2008-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Kumanyika, Shiriki K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Youfa;Beydoun, May A.;Kumanyika, Shiriki K.
我们根据20世纪70年代至2004年收集的全国性调查数据(国家健康和营养检查研究)预测了未来的患病率和BMI分布。使用预测的流行率、人口普查预测和公布的关于肥胖/超重的人均超额保健费用的国家估计，估计了未来成人与肥胖有关的保健费用。其目的是说明如果目前的趋势继续下去，美国肥胖和超重的潜在负担、患病率和医疗保健成本。超重和肥胖在美国所有人口群体中的流行率稳步上升，但不同群体之间的年增长率存在显著差异。成年人肥胖和超重的增加(百分比)比儿童(0.77比0.46-0.49)快，女性比男性(0.91比0.65)快。如果这些趋势继续下去，到2030年，86.3%的成年人将超重或肥胖；51.1%的成年人将肥胖。黑人女性(96.9%)和墨西哥裔美国男性(91.1%)受到的影响最大。到2048年，所有美国成年人都将超重或肥胖，而黑人女性将在2034年达到这一状态。到2030年，儿童超重的患病率(BMI>；=95%，30%)将增加近一倍。到2030年，可归因于肥胖/超重的总医疗成本将每十年翻一番，达到860.7-9569亿美元，占美国总医疗成本的16-18%。我们继续远离2010年的健康人目标。需要及时、戏剧性和有效地制定和实施纠正方案/政策，以避免我们的预测所暗示的其他不可避免的健康和社会后果。
We projected future prevalence and BMI distribution based on national survey data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Study) collected between 1970s and 2004. Future obesity-related health-care costs for adults were estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health-care costs of obesity/overweight. The objective was to illustrate potential burden of obesity prevalence and health-care costs of obesity and overweight in the United States that would occur if current trends continue. Overweight and obesity prevalence have increased steadily among all US population groups, but with notable differences between groups in annual increase rates. The increase (percentage points) in obesity and overweight in adults was faster than in children (0.77 vs. 0.46-0.49), and in women than in men (0.91 vs. 0.65). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican-American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI >= 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030. Total health-care costs attributable to obesity/overweight would double every decade to 860.7-956.9 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for 16-18% of total US health-care costs. We continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 objectives. Timely, dramatic, and effective development and implementation of corrective programs/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health and societal consequences implied by our projections.