A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010-2014.
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010-2014.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep30682
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发表时间：
2016-08-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Duarte CM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eguíluz VM;Fernández-Gracia J;Irigoien X;Duarte CM
海冰的迅速消失正在为北冰洋的航运开放，预计到 2050 年，这种做法将迅速增加，届时许多模型预测到夏末北冰洋将基本上没有冰。这些预测具有相当大的不确定性，因为此前人们认为北极航运太稀疏，无法进行充分验证。在这里，我们提供了定量证据，表明 2011 年至 2014 年期间北极航运的范围已经很大，并且集中在 (i) 挪威海和巴伦支海，以及 (ii) 主要通过东北和西北航道进入。 2014 年，预计的跨北极直接航线沿线仍然存在厚冰，阻碍了运输。尽管北极航运仍然受到冰层覆盖范围的限制，但每年九月，冰层覆盖范围都处于最低水平，从而允许最高水平的航运活动。迄今为止，获取北极资源，特别是渔业，是北极航运最重要的驱动力。
Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far.