Does Risk Assessment Inflame Public Anxiety?
Does Risk Assessment Inflame Public Anxiety?
复制标题
风险评估是否会加剧公众的焦虑？
DOI：
10.11447/jjra.sra-0344
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
中谷内 一也
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yamawaki Mizuki;Sakamoto Yoshiki;Yamamoto Rieko;Ueda Kimi;Ishii Hirotake;Shimoda Hiroshi;Ito Kyoko;中谷内 一也
2020年4月15日，日本厚生劳动省集群干预小组的一名成员发布了他的风险评估，该评估称，如果不采取对策，日本将有42万人死于COVID-19。他的预测被批评为引起人们过度焦虑和萎缩的国家经济。本文讨论这种形式的风险评估是否会激起公众的情绪。基于前景理论的价值函数、风险感知的双因素模型和双过程理论，对风险感知与决策的关系进行了研究。从这些角度来看，初步得出的结论是，无论预测的死亡人数有多大，统计风险评估都难以引起人们的过度恐惧。
On April 15, 2020, one member of the Cluster Intervention Group, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan, released his risk assessment, which stated that 420,000 people in Japan would die from COVID-19 if no countermeasure is taken. His prediction was criticized for causing excessive anxiety in people and atrophying the national economy. This article discusses whether such a form of risk assessment inflames public emotions. The problem was examined based on the three models in decision-making and risk perception research: the value function of prospect theory, the two-factor model of risk perception, and the dual-process theories. From these perspectives, it was tentatively concluded that no matter how large the number of deaths that are forecasted is, it is difficult for statistical risk assessments to cause excessive fear in people.