Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions
Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102667
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发表时间：
2023-03-20
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Thiery，Wim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Park，Chae Yeon;Takahashi，Kiyoshi;Thiery，Wim
火灾及其相关的碳和空气污染物排放具有广泛的环境和社会影响，包括对人类健康的负面影响，对陆地生态系统的破坏以及促进气候变化的间接影响。以前的研究从应对气候变化和人口增长的角度研究了未来的碳排放，但经济发展和土地利用变化等其他因素的复合影响尚未得到充分了解。我们通过改变五个因素（气象、生物量、土地利用、人口密度和人均国内生产总值）来探索整个世纪的火灾碳排放。与历史时期（2006-2015年）相比，全球未来火灾碳排放量下降，主要是由于人均GDP的增加，这导致火灾管理和资本化农业的改善。我们发现，在较高的变暖情况下，气象因素有很强的个体效应。由于燃料干燥度的增加，北方森林的火灾预计尤其会增加。我们的研究应该有助于气候变化研究人员考虑火碳相互作用。预测不同情景下未来的空间变化将有助于制定国家减缓和适应计划。
Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans.