Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy
Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy
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DOI：
10.1017/cbo9780511607004.006
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发表时间：
2002-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Michael D. Bordo;O. Jeanne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael D. Bordo;O. Jeanne
货币政策与资产价格变动之间的联系一直是政策制定者感兴趣的问题。在本文中，我们考虑了当资产价格逆转可能对实际产出产生严重影响时，先发制人的货币限制的潜在情况。首先，我们提供了两次著名的资产价格逆转的历史背景：1929年的美国股市崩盘和1989年的日本泡沫破裂。然后，我们提出了一些关于发达经济体股票和房地产价格繁荣-萧条动态的程式化事实。然后，我们在具有生产部门附带约束的程式化“动态新凯恩斯主义”框架的背景下讨论先发制人的货币政策的情况。我们发现，这种政策是否合理取决于复杂的、非线性的经济状况。最优政策不能用通胀目标制文献中考虑的那种简单的政策规则来概括。
The link between monetary policy and asset price movements has been of perennial interest to policy makers. In this paper we consider the potential case for pre-emptive monetary restrictions when asset price reversals can have serious effects on real output. First, we provide some historical background on two famous asset price reversals: the U.S. stock market crash of 1929 and the bursting of the Japanese bubble in 1989. We then present some stylized facts on boom-bust dynamics in stock and property prices in developed economies. We then discuss the case for a pre-emptive monetary policy in the context of a stylized 'Dynamic New Keynesian' framework with collateral constraints in the productive sector. We find that whether such a policy is warranted depends on the economic conditions in a complex, non-linear way. The optimal policy cannot be summarized by a simple policy rule of the type considered in the inflation-targeting literature.