Hourly historical and near-future weather and climate variables for energy system modelling
Hourly historical and near-future weather and climate variables for energy system modelling
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DOI：
10.5194/essd-14-2749-2022
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发表时间：
2022-06-15
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Greenwood, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bloomfield, Hannah C.;Brayshaw, David J.;Greenwood, David
由于采用可再生能源发电以及供热和运输部门的电气化，能源系统越来越容易受到天气和气候的影响。迫切需要高质量的气象数据来管理当前和近期的风险。本文提供了一套全面的多年代际，时间序列的每小时气象变量和天气依赖的电力系统组件用于能源系统建模社区。尽管在过去十年中，人们对气候变率和气候变化对能源系统的影响越来越感兴趣，但在详细的模拟中使用气象数据的数十年模拟仍然很少。这部分是由于计算方面的限制，但也由于技术障碍限制了非专业人员使用气象数据。本文介绍了一个新的欧洲级数据集，可用于调查气候变率和气候变化对近期能源系统多个方面的影响。这些数据集对应于一套有据可查、易于使用、自洽、每小时和全国汇总以及次国家时间序列，包括2米温度、10米风速、100米风速、表面太阳辐照度、风力发电容量因子、太阳能功率因子和30多个欧洲国家的度日数。该数据集可用于1950-2020年的历史时期，可从https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000321（布卢姆菲尔德和Brayshaw，2021 a）访问。此外，还创建了一个配套数据集，其中ERA 5再分析经过调整，以代表基于五个高分辨率气候模式模拟的近期气候变化（以2035年为中心）的影响。这些数据可用于中欧和北方的70年期。这些数据可从https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000331（布卢姆菲尔德和Brayshaw，2021 b）获得。据作者所知，这是第一次发布一套与未来气候预测相关的全面的高质量小时时间序列，这是专门为支持能源部门而设计的。本文的目的是详细说明处理气候模型数据所需的方法，并说明在从次国家到欧洲尺度的能源系统建模中考虑气候变率和气候变化的重要性。因此，虽然这项研究并不打算对气候影响进行详尽的分析，但希望公布这些数据将促进在能源系统建模中更多地使用气候数据。
Energy systems are becoming increasingly exposed to the impacts of weather and climate due to the uptake of renewable generation and the electrification of the heat and transport sectors. The need for high-quality meteorological data to manage present and near-future risks is urgent. This paper provides a comprehensive set of multi-decadal, time series of hourly meteorological variables and weather-dependent power system components for use in the energy systems modelling community. Despite the growing interest in the impacts of climate variability and climate change on energy systems over the last decade, it remains rare for multi-decadal simulations of meteorological data to be used within detailed simulations. This is partly due to computational constraints, but also due to technical barriers limiting the use of meteorological data by non-specialists. This paper presents a new European-level dataset which can be used to investigate the impacts of climate variability and climate change on multiple aspects of near-future energy systems. The datasets correspond to a suite of well-documented, easy-to-use, self-consistent, hourly- and nationally aggregated, and sub-national time series for 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, 100 m wind speed, surface solar irradiance, wind power capacity factor, solar power factor, and degree days spanning over 30 European countries. This dataset is available for the historical period 1950-2020 and is accessible from https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000321 (Bloomfield and Brayshaw, 2021a).As well as this a companion dataset is created where the ERA5 reanalysis is adjusted to represent the impacts of near-term climate change (centred on the year 2035) based on five high-resolution climate model simulations. These data are available for a 70-year period for central and northern Europe. The data are accessible from https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000331 (Bloomfield and Brayshaw, 2021b).To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time a comprehensive set of high-quality hourly time series relating to future climate projections has been published, which is specifically designed to support the energy sector. The purpose of this paper is to detail the methods required for processing the climate model data and illustrate the importance of accounting for climate variability and climate change within energy system modelling from the sub-national to European scale. While this study is therefore not intended to be an exhaustive analysis of climate impacts, it is hoped that publishing these data will promote greater use of climate data within energy system modelling.