Global trends in the frequency and duration of temperature extremes
Global trends in the frequency and duration of temperature extremes
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03094-0
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发表时间：
2021-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Ault, Toby R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
La Sorte, Frank A.;Johnston, Alison;Ault, Toby R.
人为气候变化影响了极端气候事件的频率和持续时间，包括极端高温事件（EHE）和极端低温事件（ECE）。在全球陆地和海洋环境中，EHE和ECE的频率和持续时间如何随着时间的推移而变化尚未得到充分探讨。在这里，我们使用来自ERA 5再分析的70年（1950-2019）的最低和最高温度的去趋势每日估计值来估计地球仪上EHE和ECE的每日发生率。我们按季节测量EHE和ECE的频率和持续时间，并估计这些措施如何随着时间的推移而变化。EHE和ECE的频率和持续时间呈现相似的模式，其特征是低空间异质性和强烈的季节变化。高EHE频率和持续时间发生在南极洲的夏季和冬季，在北冰洋的北部冬季。高ECE频率和持续时间发生在北北和古北在北方冬季和北冰洋在北方夏季。趋势分析表明，频率和持续时间之间存在明显差异，空间异质性高，特别是在陆地环境中，季节变化大。积极的EHE趋势，主要是在海洋环境中的持续时间，发生在北方夏季在中纬度地区的北方半球和南半球的中纬度地区的夏季。热带太平洋东部包含积极的EHE和ECE趋势，主要在北方冬季的持续时间。我们的研究结果强调了极端温度事件可能给陆地和海洋环境中的人类和自然系统带来的许多短期挑战，以及随着气候变化的进展，我们需要进一步了解这些变化动态的长期影响。
Anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and duration of extreme climate events, including extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme cold events (ECE). How the frequency and duration of both EHE and ECE have changed over time within both terrestrial and marine environments globally has not been fully explored. Here, we use detrended daily estimates of minimum and maximum temperature from the ERA5 reanalysis over a 70-year period (1950-2019) to estimate the daily occurrence of EHE and ECE across the globe. We measure the frequency and duration of EHE and ECE by season across years and estimate how these measures have changed over time. Frequency and duration for both EHE and ECE presented similar patterns characterized by low spatial heterogeneity and strong seasonal variation. High EHE frequency and duration occurred within the Antarctic during the austral summer and winter and within the Arctic Ocean during the boreal winter. High ECE frequency and duration occurred within the Nearctic and Palearctic during the boreal winter and the Arctic Ocean during the boreal summer. The trend analysis presented pronounced differences between frequency and duration, high spatial heterogeneity, especially within terrestrial environments, and strong seasonal variation. Positive EHE trends, primarily in duration within marine environments, occurred during the boreal summer within the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and during the austral summer within the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The eastern tropical Pacific contained positive EHE and ECE trends, primary in duration during the boreal winter. Our findings emphasize the many near-term challenges that extreme temperature events are likely to pose for human and natural systems within terrestrial and marine environments, and the need to advance our understanding of the developing long-term implications of these changing dynamics as climate change progresses.