Mid-20th century warming hole boosts US maize yields
Mid-20th century warming hole boosts US maize yields
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab422b
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发表时间：
2019-11-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Hyndman, David W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Partridge, Trevor F.;Winter, Jonathan M.;Hyndman, David W.
美国玉米带是世界上农业生产最多的地区之一，在20世纪中后期经历了全球年气温异常下降和降水量同时增加的情况。在这里，我们量化这个洞的影响？变暖的洞？通过开发替代的、没有变暖漏洞的气候情景来推动统计作物模型和基于过程的作物模型，从而提高玉米产量。结果表明，增温洞使玉米产量每年增加5%~10%，其中62%的模拟增产是由较低的气温造成的，其余的原因是较大的降水造成的。观测到的与变暖洞相关的降温和增湿通过两个互补的机制产生了产量：作物发育缓慢，导致成熟时间延长，以及干旱胁迫减少。我们的结果突显出，到目前为止，气候变化对美国中部玉米生产的影响相对较小，而气候变暖空洞的坍塌和气候变化将给整个玉米带的农民带来潜在的复合挑战。
The Corn Belt of the United States, one of the most agriculturally productive regions in the world, experienced a globally anomalous decrease in annual temperatures and a concurrent increase in precipitation during the mid- to late-20th century. Here, we quantify the impact of this ?warming hole? on maize yields by developing alternative, no warming hole, climate scenarios that are used to drive both statistical and process-based crop models. We show that the warming hole increased maize yields by 5%?10% per year, with lower temperatures responsible for 62% of the simulated yield increase and greater precipitation responsible for the rest. The observed cooling and wetting associated with the warming hole produced increased yields through two complementary mechanisms: slower crop development which resulted in prolonged time to maturity, and lower drought stress. Our results underscore the relative lack of climate change impacts on central US maize production to date, and the potential compounded challenge that a collapse of the warming hole and climate change would create for farmers across the Corn Belt.