Modeling the Roles of Heterogeneity, Substitution, and Inventories in the Assessment of Natural Disaster Economic Costs
Modeling the Roles of Heterogeneity, Substitution, and Inventories in the Assessment of Natural Disaster Economic Costs
复制标题
模拟异质性、替代性和库存在自然灾害经济成本评估中的作用
DOI：
10.1596/1813-9450-6047
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Hallegatte
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Hallegatte
基于IO结构，ARIO库存模型模拟了自然灾害的经济后果和反应。它明确地代表了生产瓶颈，在稀缺的情况下模拟了生产能力的灵活性，并引入了库存作为生产系统的额外灵活性。此外，它还考虑到各部门内货物和服务的异质性，以及对生产瓶颈和替代可能性的影响。该模型被应用到卡特里娜飓风在路易斯安那州的登陆。敏感性分析表明，结果是非常敏感的几个不确定的模型参数。特别是，考虑到部门内的异质性对生产瓶颈有很大的负面影响，从而增加了自然灾害和其他供应方冲击造成的总经济损失。本文表明，目前的模型忽略了重要的机制，并提出了一种方法来考虑到他们。
Based on an IO structure, the ARIO-inventory model simulates the economic consequences and responses to a natural disaster. It represents explicitly production bottlenecks, models a flexibility in production capacity in case of scarcity, and introduces inventories as an additional flexibility in the production system. Moreover, it takes into account the heterogeneity in goods and services within sectors, and the consequences on production bottlenecks and substitution possibilities. The model is applied to the landfall of hurricane Katrina in Louisiana. Sensitivity analyses show that results are extremely sensitive to several uncertain model parameters. In particular, accounting for heterogeneity within sectors has a large negative influence on production bottlenecks, and thus increases total economic losses from natural disasters and other supply-side shocks. This paper shows that current models disregard important mechanisms and proposes an approach to take them into account.