Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0702737104
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发表时间：
2007-11-20
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Marland, Gregg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Canadell, Josep G.;Le Quéré, Corinne;Marland, Gregg
大气中的二氧化碳是人类引起的气候变化的最大贡献者，其增长率正在迅速增加。三个过程促成了这一快速增长。其中两个过程涉及排放。近年来世界经济的增长加上碳强度的增加，导致自2000年以来化石燃料二氧化碳排放量迅速增长：与2000-2006年相比，20世纪90年代的排放增长率从1.3%增加到3.3%y-1。第三个过程是由越来越多的证据表明（P= 0.89）的长期（50年）的空气中的部分（AF）的CO2排放量的增加，这意味着在陆地和海洋吸收人为排放的CO2汇的效率下降。自2000年以来，这三个因素对大气CO2增长率增加的贡献分别为：全球经济活动增加65 ± 16%，全球经济碳强度增加17 ± 6%，AF增加18 ± 15%。AF增加与气候-碳循环模型的结果一致，但观测到的信号的幅度似乎大于模型估计的幅度。所有这些变化都是碳循环的特征，碳循环正在产生比预期更强和更快的气候强迫。
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO2emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3%y−1. The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P= 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO2emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO2sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO2growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.