Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
M. Haasnoot;J. C. J. Kwadijk-J.-C.-J.-Kwadijk-2253109353;J. V. Alphen;D. L. Bars;B. Hurk;F. Diermanse;A.J.F. van der Spek;G. O. Essink;J. Delsman;M. Mens
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Haasnoot;J. C. J. Kwadijk-J.-C.-J.-Kwadijk-2253109353;J. V. Alphen;D. L. Bars;B. Hurk;F. Diermanse;A.J.F. van der Spek;G. O. Essink;J. Delsman;M. Mens
海平面上升的速度和幅度的不确定性使沿海适应的决策复杂化。很大的不确定性来自南极洲潜在的冰量损失，这可能在本世纪后半叶迅速增加SLR。SLR的影响对于荷兰这样的低地国家来说可能是存在的，并且值得探索高影响低可能性情景。为了应对不确定的SLR，荷兰采取了适应性路径计划。本文分析了导致极端SLR的故事情节对荷兰当前适应性计划的影响，重点是洪水风险，淡水资源和海岸线管理。它进一步讨论了低洼沿海地区沿海适应的影响，考虑到适应的时间尺度，包括决定的寿命和准备和执行的准备时间。我们发现，随着海平面上升速度更快，更高，砂营养量，以维持荷兰海岸可能需要高达20倍以上，到2100年，风暴潮屏障将需要关闭的频率越来越高，直到永久关闭，并加强盐水入侵将减少淡水供应，而需求正在上升。投资的预期寿命将大幅缩短。因此，逐步适应需要以更高的频率或更大的增量发生，而SLR仍然存在很大的不确定性，存在投资不足或过度投资的风险。预测极不确定的高SLR情景有助于及时适应，并认识到减排和监测南极洲对SLR贡献的价值。
Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existential for a low-lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exploration of high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. To deal with uncertain SLR, the Netherlands has adopted an adaptive pathways plan. This paper analyzes the implications of storylines leading to extreme SLR for the current adaptive plan in the Netherlands, focusing on flood risk, fresh water resources, and coastline management. It further discusses implications for coastal adaptation in low-lying coastal zones considering timescales of adaptation including the decisions lifetime and lead-in time for preparation and implementation. We find that as sea levels rise faster and higher, sand nourishment volumes to maintain the Dutch coast may need to be up to 20 times larger than to date in 2100, storm surge barriers will need to close at increasing frequency until closed permanently, and intensified saltwater intrusion will reduce freshwater availability while the demand is rising. The expected lifetime of investments will reduce drastically. Consequently, step-wise adaptation needs to occur at an increasing frequency or with larger increments while there is still large SLR uncertainty with the risk of under- or overinvesting. Anticipating deeply uncertain, high SLR scenarios helps to enable timely adaptation and to appreciate the value of emission reduction and monitoring of the Antarctica contribution to SLR.