Shifts in the spatiotemporal dynamics of schistosomiasis: a case study in Anhui Province, China.
Shifts in the spatiotemporal dynamics of schistosomiasis: a case study in Anhui Province, China.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0003715
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发表时间：
2015-04
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Jiang Q
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu Y;Li R;Chen Y;Gao F;Wang Q;Zhang S;Zhang Z;Jiang Q
中国国家监测系统显示，日本血吸虫感染风险具有时段性。这种动态变化可能表明疾病的周期性，对其的了解可以显著改善有针对性的干预措施，以减轻血吸虫病的负担。本研究旨在探讨近年来我国血吸虫病发病风险的时空变化规律。通过1997-2010年在中国东部安徽省进行的重复横断面调查获得了寄生虫学数据。采用多元自回归模型，结合主振荡模式（POP）分析评价血吸虫病发病风险的时空变化。结果表明，研究区血吸虫病风险的时间变化可以分解为两个持续的衰减振荡模式，估计周期约为2.5年。与这些振荡组分相关的持久性有机污染物表明，长江附近的模式变化明显，疾病风险似乎向西南/东北方向演变。POP系数在2001年之前呈下降趋势，2002-2005年期间呈上升趋势，之后呈衰减趋势。POP分析揭示了长江流域血吸虫病发病风险的时空变化特征，表明沿江地区主要存在时间上的差异。血吸虫病发病风险随时间波动周期性下降。它是否源于以前的国家血吸虫病控制战略，需要进一步调查。目的调查安徽省血吸虫病时空传播动态变化。通过1997-2010年期间进行的反复横断面调查获得了寄生虫学数据。采用多元自回归模型，结合主振荡模式（POP）分析评价血吸虫病发病风险的时空变化。血吸虫病发病风险在时间上呈衰减振荡波动模式，表明在研究期间发病风险周期性下降，但在时间上呈上升趋势。这种变化可能是国家血吸虫病控制战略的结果。POP分析还显示了血吸虫病在长江流域的空间分布格局。POP方法通常用于地球科学，但不用于流行病学。基于该方法的分析为血吸虫病传播研究提供了新的思路。随着更大规模的数据集变得容易获得，这些方法在解决流行病学问题方面的效用将会增加。
The Chinese national surveillance system showed that the risk of Schistosoma japonicum infection fluctuated temporally. This dynamical change might indicate periodicity of the disease, and its understanding could significantly improve targeted interventions to reduce the burden of schistosomiasis. The goal of this study was to investigate how the schistosomiasis risk varied temporally and spatially in recent years. Parasitological data were obtained through repeated cross-sectional surveys that were carried out during 1997-2010 in Anhui Province, East China. A multivariate autoregressive model, combined with principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis, was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variation of schistosomiasis risk. Results showed that the temporal changes of schistosomiasis risk in the study area could be decomposed into two sustained damped oscillatory modes with estimated period of approximately 2.5 years. The POPs associated with these oscillatory components showed that the pattern near the Yangtze River varied markedly and that the disease risk appeared to evolve in a Southwest/Northeast orientation. The POP coefficients showed decreasing tendency until 2001, then increasing during 2002-2005 and decaying afterwards. The POP analysis characterized the variations of schistosomiasis risk over space and time and demonstrated that the disease mainly varied temporally along the Yangtze River. The schistosomiasis risk declined periodically with a temporal fluctuation. Whether it resulted from previous national control strategies on schistosomiasis needs further investigations. We investigated changes in dynamics of schistosomiasis transmission over space and time in Anhui Province of East China. Parasitological data were obtained through repeated cross-sectional surveys that were carried out during 1997–2010. A multivariate autoregressive model, combined with principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis, was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variation of schistosomiasis risk. The schistosomiasis risk changed temporally as a damped oscillatory mode with a fluctuation, indicating that the disease risk declined periodically but with a temporal ascent during the study period. This change might result from national control strategies on schistosomiasis. The POP analysis also demonstrated a shifting spatial pattern of schistosomiasis along the Yangtze River. The POP method is commonly used in geosciences but not in epidemiology. Our analysis based on the approach provided new insights into the research of schistosomiasis transmission. The utility of such methods for addressing epidemiological problems will grow as more large-scale datasets become readily available.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph110100701
发表时间：
2014-01-03
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hu Y;Xiong C;Zhang Z;Luo C;Cohen T;Gao J;Zhang L;Jiang Q
通讯作者：
Jiang Q
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Barbosa, S. M.;Silva, M. E.;Fernandes, M. J.
通讯作者：
Fernandes, M. J.
世界银行血吸虫病防治贷款项目的长期影响：中国血吸虫病风险空间分布比较
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Zhang Z;Zhu R;Ward MP;Xu W;Zhang L;Guo J;Zhao F;Jiang Q
通讯作者：
Jiang Q
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Steinmann, Peter;Zhou, Xiao-Nong;Utzinger, Juerg
通讯作者：
Utzinger, Juerg
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Zhang, W;Wong, CM
通讯作者：
Wong, CM