Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models
Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models
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Fldgen v1.0：具有内部可变性和时空相关性的地球系统模型模拟器
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
B. Bond‐Lamberty
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Link;Abigail C. Snyder;Cary Lynch;C. Hartin;B. Kravitz;B. Bond‐Lamberty
抽象的。地球系统模型(ESM)是生产的黄金标准
未来的气候变化预测，但运行这些预测是困难的，而且
成本高昂，因此研究人员通常仅限于选择一小部分
场景。本文介绍了一种详细模拟地球的技术
系统模型(ESM)的温度输出，基于确定性构造
全球平均气温响应的模型。它们之间的残差
利用平均响应和ESM输出温度场来构造
添加到平均响应以生成最终响应的可变性字段
产品。该方法在空间和时间上生成网格级输出
连贯的可变性。输出字段包括随机分量，因此系统
可以运行所需的次数以产生大量的田块
用于需要它们的应用程序。我们描述了该方法，并给出了实例
输出，并提供统计验证，表明它复制了ESM
它打算捕获的属性。此方法可作为
开源的R包，应该在气候变异性的研究中有用
以及它对人与人之间相互作用的不确定性的贡献
地球系统。
Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are the gold standard for producing
future projections of climate change, but running them is difficult and
costly, and thus researchers are generally limited to a small selection of
scenarios. This paper presents a technique for detailed emulation of the Earth
system model (ESM) temperature output, based on the construction of a deterministic
model for the mean response to global temperature. The residuals between the
mean response and the ESM output temperature fields are used to construct
variability fields that are added to the mean response to produce the final
product. The method produces grid-level output with spatially and temporally
coherent variability. Output fields include random components, so the system
may be run as many times as necessary to produce large ensembles of fields
for applications that require them. We describe the method, show example
outputs, and present statistical verification that it reproduces the ESM
properties it is intended to capture. This method, available as an
open-source R package, should be useful in the study of climate variability
and its contribution to uncertainties in the interactions between human and
Earth systems.