China's balance of emissions embodied in trade: approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility
China's balance of emissions embodied in trade: approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility
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DOI：
10.1093/oxrep/grn016
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Chen, Ying
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pan, Jiahua;Phillips, Jonathan;Chen, Ying
国际贸易的特点不仅在于资本和货物的流动，而且在于货物在生产过程中所体现的能源和排放。本文通过估算中国当前贸易模式所体现的排放规模，并展示其产生的排放（其中一些是为了满足世界其他地区的消费需求而产生的）与所消费商品所体现的排放之间的差异的大小，来研究中国贸易在应对气候变化方面所发挥的不断变化的作用。以消费而非生产为基础估算中国的排放量，既可以将其2006年的二氧化碳排放责任从5,500亿吨降低到3,84亿吨(2)，也可以将2001年至2006年间的排放量增长率从年均12.5%降低到8.7%。分析表明，一种可靠的基于消费的核算方法是可行的，可以提高我们对哪些行为者和国家应对排放负责的理解。例如，如果生产只是转移到中国这样的国家，发达国家最近的减排可能缺乏可信度。此外，在目前的制度背景下，生产方法鼓励通过贸易泄漏，这可能更多地取代而不是减少排放。因此，对公平和效率的关切表明，在分配《京都议定书》之后的减排负担时，应特别注意贸易所包含的排放。
International trade is characterized not only by the flow of capital and goods, but also by the energy and emissions embodied in goods during their production. This paper investigates the evolving role that Chinese trade is playing in the response to climate change by estimating the scale of emissions embodied in China's current trade pattern and demonstrating the magnitude of the difference between the emissions it produces (some of which are incurred to meet the consumption demands of the rest of the world) and the emissions embodied in the goods it consumes. Estimating China's emissions on a consumption rather than a production basis both lowers its responsibility for carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2006 from 5,500 to 3,840mtCO(2) and reduces the growth rate of emissions from an average of 12.5 per cent p.a. to 8.7 per cent p.a. between 2001 and 2006. The analysis indicates that a reliable consumption-based accounting methodology is feasible and could improve our understanding of which actors and states are responsible for emissions. For example, recent emissions reductions by developed countries may lack credibility if production has merely been displaced to countries such as China. Moreover, in the current institutional context, production methodologies encourage leakages through trade that may do more to displace than to reduce emissions. Both equity and efficiency concerns therefore suggest that emissions embodied in trade should receive special attention in the distribution of post-Kyoto abatement burdens.