Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood
Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jebo.2018.05.008
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Kodaverdian, Niree
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barash, Jori;Brocas, Isabelle;Kodaverdian, Niree
在这个实验室实验中，儿童和青少年通过取样和放回来了解瓮中球的成分。我们发现所有年龄段的最佳贝叶斯学习都存在显着的总体偏差，但也存在重要的发展轨迹。两种基于推理的策略和两种基于启发式的策略捕获了 65% 至 90% 的参与者的行为。许多最小的孩子（幼儿园到二年级）仅根据最后一条信息做出决定，并使用进化启发法（例如“赢-留下，输-转换”策略）来指导他们的选择。年龄较大的儿童和青少年逐渐能够根据之前的所有信息做出决定，但他们经常成为赌徒谬误的牺牲品。只有最年长的参与者才能表现出最佳的贝叶斯推理。这些结果受任务复杂性的影响，当推论更简单时，贝叶斯推理就会更早得到证明。 (C) 2018 年由 Elsevier B.V. 出版
In this laboratory experiment, children and teenagers learn the composition of balls in an urn through sampling with replacement. We find significant aggregate departures from optimal Bayesian learning across all ages, but also important developmental trajectories. Two inference-based and two heuristic-based strategies capture the behavior of 65% to 90% of participants. Many of the youngest children (K to 2nd grade) base their decisions only on the last piece of information and use evolutionary heuristics (such as the "Win-Stay, Lose-Switch" strategy) to guide their choices. Older children and teenagers are gradually able to condition their decisions on all previous information but they often fall prey of the gambler's fallacy. Only the oldest participants display optimal Bayesian reasoning. These results are modulated by task complexity, and Bayesian reasoning is evidenced earlier when inferences are simpler. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.