Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the US Public
Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the US Public
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DOI：
10.1175/2008waf2007088.1
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发表时间：
2008-10-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Lazo, Jeffrey K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morss, Rebecca E.;Demuth, Julie L.;Lazo, Jeffrey K.
天气预报本质上是不确定的，而气象学家掌握的有关天气预报不确定性的信息，大多数预报用户并不容易获得。然而，有效地向非气象学家传达预报的不确定性仍然具有挑战性。改进预测不确定性沟通需要以研究为基础的知识，这些知识可以为决策提供信息，决定何时传达哪些不确定性信息。以及如何做到这一点。来帮助建立这样的知识。本文利用一项全国性调查的结果，探讨公众对日常天气预报不确定性和不确定性信息的看法。这些发现有助于从根本上理解非专业人士对预测不确定性的看法，从而为不确定性沟通和相关研究提供信息。本文使用美国全国公众调查的经验数据来调查普遍的信念，并探索新的主题。结果表明，当给出气象学家持有的确定性最小气温预报时，大多数受访者预计气温将落在预测值附近的范围内。换句话说。大多数人在确定性预测中推断出不确定性。在两种情况下，人们对确定性预报和非确定性预报的偏好进行了考察；在这两种情况下，绝大多数受访者都喜欢表达不确定性的天气预报，许多人更喜欢这样的预报，而不是单一价值的预报。文章还讨论了人们对不同类型预报的信心，他们对降水预报概率的解释，以及他们对预报不确定性如何传达的偏好。需要进一步的实证研究，以在其他背景下研究这篇文章的发现，并继续探索感知。天气预报不确定性的解释、沟通和使用。
Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists remains challenging. Improving forecast uncertainty communication requires research-based knowledge that can inform decisions on what uncertainty information to communicate, when. and how to do so. To help build such knowledge. this article explores the public's perspectives on everyday weather forecast uncertainty and uncertainty information using results from a nationwide Survey. By contributing to the fundamental understanding of laypeople's views on forecast uncertainty, the findings can inform both uncertainty communication and related research.The article uses empirical data from a nationwide survey of the U.S. public to investigate beliefs commonly and to explore new topics. The results show that when given a deterministic held among meteorologists ministic temperature forecast, most respondents expected the temperature to fall within a range around the predicted value. In other words. most people inferred uncertainty into the deterministic forecast. People's preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts were examined in two situations; in both, a significant majority of respondents liked weather forecasts that expressed uncertainty, and many preferred such forecasts to single-valued forecasts. The article also discusses people's confidence in different types of forecasts, their interpretations of the probability of precipitation forecasts, and their preferences for how forecast uncertainty is conveyed. Further empirical research is needed to study the article's findings in other contexts and to continue exploring perception. interpretation, communication, and use of weather forecast uncertainty.