Cold and heat waves in the United States
Cold and heat waves in the United States
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2011.12.010
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Rocklov, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnett, A. G.;Hajat, S.;Rocklov, J.
以连续数天冷热天气为特征的极端寒暑，给人们的心血管和呼吸系统带来了压力。这些海浪造成的死亡人数的增加可能比极端温度单独预测的要多。我们对美国99个城市14年（1987-2000年）的寒潮和热浪进行了研究，并调查了死亡风险如何依赖于用来定义热浪的温度阈值，以及热浪的时间、持续时间和强度。我们用两天或两天以上高于或低于冷热阈值的温度来定义寒潮和热浪。我们尝试了五个低温阈值，使用温度的第一到第五个百分位数，以及五个高温阈值，使用95到99个百分位数。额外的波效应是用两阶段模型来估计的，以确保它们的影响是在去除温度的一般影响后估计的。与寒潮相关的死亡人数的增加通常很小，没有统计学意义，甚至有证据表明，在最冷的寒潮期间，死亡风险降低。热浪通常会增加死亡风险，尤其是在最热的时候。强度更低或持续时间更长的寒潮并不更危险。寒冷季节早期的寒潮更危险，温暖季节早期的热浪也是如此。总的来说，在寒潮期间，死亡风险的增加并没有超过已知的与低温有关的风险增加。在寒冷或温暖的季节，早期的寒冷或热浪可能会更危险，因为易受影响的水池中有堆积，或者缺乏对极端温度的准备。(C) 2011爱思唯尔公司版权所有。
Extreme cold and heat waves, characterized by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people's cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone.We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987-2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave's timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the 95-99 percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature.The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season.In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for extreme temperatures. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.