Did Norway gain from the 1979–1985 oil price shock?
Did Norway gain from the 1979–1985 oil price shock?
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DOI：
10.1016/s0264-9993(99)00023-1
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发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Torbjørn Eika;K. Magnussen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Torbjørn Eika;K. Magnussen
本文用两个大型宏观经济计量模型研究了1979-1985年期间高油价对挪威的宏观经济影响。国际影响是用世界模型计算的，而对挪威经济的影响是用国内模型计算的。如果挪威不改变财政政策，外国需求下降和利率上升的负面影响将占主导地位。然而，基于谨慎支出战略的更具扩张性的财政政策，其效果超过了国际环境的负面影响。
Macroeconomic effects for Norway of the high oil prices in the period 1979–1985 are studied using two large-scale macroeconometric models. International effects are calculated with a world model and impulses transmitted to the Norwegian economy by a domestic model. Without any fiscal policy change in Norway, negative effects from lower foreign demand and higher interest rates are dominating. However, a more expansionary fiscal policy, based on a prudent spending strategy, is shown to more than outweigh the negative effects from the international environment.