Performance of conceptual rainfall‐runoff models in low‐yielding ephemeral catchments
Performance of conceptual rainfall‐runoff models in low‐yielding ephemeral catchments
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DOI：
10.1029/96wr02840
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发表时间：
1997-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
W. Ye;B. Bates;N. Viney;M. Sivapalan;A. Jakeman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Ye;B. Bates;N. Viney;M. Sivapalan;A. Jakeman
具有短暂溪流的低产集水区涉及降雨和径流之间的高度非线性关系，并且与潮湿集水区相比，在这些非常困难的情况下预测径流的能力的文献和评价要少得多。三个概念性降雨径流模型的预测进行了评估，在三个低收益，emphemeral流超过10年的时间。这些模型是一个简单的概念模型，广义表面inFiltration基流（GSFB; 8个参数），一个混合度量/概念模型，识别过程和组件从降雨，蒸发和径流数据（IHACRES; 6个参数），和一个复杂的概念模型，大规模流域模型（LASCAM; 22个参数）。西澳大利亚州的鲑鱼（0.82平方公里），石头（15平方公里）和罐头（517平方公里）集水区的大小和低径流量（降雨量的1.6-12.2%）的范围内选择。他们的行为是澳大利亚和半干旱地区的大部分，在那里的先决条件是降雨径流响应的关键决定因素的代表。这样的集水区为概念模型的能力提供了严峻的考验。使用一系列统计数据评估了5年校准和确认性能。这些模型每天运行，但通过汇总每日模型流量和每月的观测结果，每天和每月评估性能。该模型表现良好，特别是在每月的情况下，往往超过90%的观测流量的方差解释在模拟独立的时期。然而，虽然简单的概念模型是足够的，每月的时间段，每天的模拟结果表明，一个稍微复杂的模型（混合模型或复杂的概念模型），需要在这些干集水区的日常预测。模型模拟结果扩展了Jakeman和Hornberger [1993]从湿润到半干旱短暂集水区的以下概念：大约六个参数的模型，尽管在适当的模型结构中，足以描述各种集水区大小的降雨流量时间序列中的信息。这种适度复杂性的模型在校准期外也能以良好的精度预测径流，即使是在短暂的低产集水区。模拟结果强调了深层地下水和前期水分条件对短暂集水区河流产量的至关重要性，并指出在干旱区建模中考虑这些因素的必要性。
Low‐yielding catchments with ephemeral streams involve highly nonlinear relationships between rainfall and runoff, and there is much less documentation and appreciation of the ability to predict streamflow in these veiy difficult cases than in humid catchments. The predictions of three conceptual rainfall‐runoff models are assessed in three low‐yielding, emphemeral streams over a 10‐year period. The models are a simple conceptual model, Generalized Surface inFiltration Baseflow (GSFB; eight parameters), a hybrid metric/conceptual model, Identification of Hydrographs and Components from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow data (IHACRES; six parameters), and a complex conceptual model, the Large Scale Catchment Model (LASCAM; 22 parameters). The Salmon (0.82 km2), Stones (15 km2), and Canning (517 km2) catchments in Western Australia were selected for their range of sizes and low runoff yields (1.6–12.2% of rainfall). Their behavior is representative of a large part of Australia and semiarid regions, where antecedent conditions are critical determinants of streamflow response to rainfall. Such catchments provide a stern test of the capability of conceptual models. Five‐year calibration and validation performances were assessed with a range of statistics. The models were run daily but performance was assessed on both a daily and monthly basis by aggregating daily model streamflows and observations up to monthly. The models performed well, particularly in the monthly case where often more than 90% of the variance of observed streamflow was explained in simulation on independent periods. However, while the simple conceptual model is adequate for monthly time periods, the daily simulation results indicate that a slightly more complex model (the hybrid model or the complex conceptual model) is required for daily predictions in these dry catchments. The model simulation results extend the following notion of Jakeman and Hornberger [1993] from humid to semiarid ephemeral catchments: that a model of about six parameters, albeit in an appropriate model structure, is sufficient to characterize the information in rainfall‐discharge time series over a wide range of catchment sizes. Models of such modest complexity also predict runoff with good accuracy outside calibration periods, even in ephemeral, low‐yielding catchments. The simulation results highlight the critical importance of the deep groundwater and antecedent moisture conditions on stream yields in ephemeral catchments and point to the desirability of accounting for these factors in arid‐zone modeling.