Relationships between drought disasters and crop production during ENSO episodes across the North China Plain
Relationships between drought disasters and crop production during ENSO episodes across the North China Plain
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10113-014-0723-8
复制
发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Yuan Liu;Buchun Liu;Xiaojuan Yang;W. Bai;Jian Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yuan Liu;Buchun Liu;Xiaojuan Yang;W. Bai;Jian Wang
研究干旱的原因很重要，因为大面积区域性干旱的形成与中国的全球大气系统异常有关。为了提高对地区干旱脆弱性的认识并提高华北平原的粮食生产安全，需要有关干旱对作物生产影响的信息。利用1961 - 2007年农业统计资料和南方涛动指数资料，对区域农业气象灾害进行了定量评估，并对干旱灾害造成的粮食产量和气候产量损失的回归预测模型进行了评估。数据显示，干旱覆盖面积比下降，但干旱影响面积比上升。在拉尼娜阶段，干旱灾害的概率高于厄尔尼诺阶段，特别是在河北。在厄尔尼诺年，冬季干旱覆盖、受影响和受破坏面积比率呈负趋势，其他三个季节呈正趋势。在拉尼娜年，所有季节的干旱灾害面积比率都是正的。在中性年份，秋季更有可能发生干旱事件。对三省的回归分析表明，粮食气候产量损失与旱灾造成的粮食产量损失呈显著正相关。这表明，区域粮食产量模拟和农业气象灾害评估可靠地预测了干旱灾害的实地测量的统计数据。因此，我们的结果表明，在厄尔尼诺年的干旱灾害面积有一个混合的季节趋势，但在拉尼娜年的所有季节一致的上升趋势。我们还表明，干旱灾害造成的损失可以通过估计产量损失来量化。
Studying the causes of drought is important because the formation of large regional droughts is linked to global atmospheric system abnormalities in China. Information about the effects of drought on crop production is needed in order to improve understanding of a region’s drought vulnerability and to improve food production safety in the North China Plain. This paper uses agricultural statistics and monthly Southern Oscillation Index data between 1961 and 2007 to quantitatively evaluate regional agricultural meteorological disasters and to assess the regressive models used to predict the grain yield and climatic yield losses caused by drought disasters. The data showed that the drought-covered area ratios declined, but the drought-affected area ratios rose. During the La Niña stage, the probability of a drought disaster was higher than during the El Niño stage, especially in Hebei. In the El Niño years, there were negative trends for the drought-covered, -affected and -destroyed area ratios in winter and positive trends in the other three seasons. In the La Niña years, the drought disaster area ratios were positive for all seasons. In Neutral years, there was more likely to be a drought event in autumn. The regression analyses for the three provinces showed that the grain climatic yield loss was significantly associated with the grain yield loss caused by drought disasters. This showed that regional grain yield simulations and evaluations of agro-meteorological disasters reliably predicted the field measured statistical data for drought disasters. Therefore, our results showed that there is a mixed seasonal trend in the drought disaster areas in the El Niño years, but a consistent upward trend for all seasons in the La Niña years. We also showed that the damage caused by drought disasters can be quantified by estimating the yield loss.