Estimating UK methane and nitrous oxide emissions from 1990 to 2007 using an inversion modeling approach
Estimating UK methane and nitrous oxide emissions from 1990 to 2007 using an inversion modeling approach
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DOI：
10.1029/2010jd014763
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发表时间：
2011-01-25
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Derwent, R. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Manning, A. J.;O'Doherty, S.;Derwent, R. G.
甲烷（CH4）和一氧化二氮（N2O）在地球大气中具有很强的辐射特性，两者都受到《联合国气候变化框架公约》的管制。根据这项公约，联合王国有义务报告一份1990年以来的年度排放估计数清单。本文描述了一种完全独立于库存值估算CH4和N2O排放量的方法。对联合王国和欧洲西北部1990-2007年每年的排放量进行了估计。该方法将爱尔兰西海岸梅斯黑德监测站的高频观测与大气弥散模型和反演系统相结合。报告了反演方法对模型假设的敏感性。还给出了20年北半球中纬度基线混合比、增长率和两种气体的季节周期。结果表明，在整个时期内，英国N2O的库存和反演结果之间存在合理的一致性。对于甲烷，1990年代的协议很差，但2000年代的协议很好。从1990-1992年到2005-2007年，英国报告的CH4库存减少（超过50%）主要是垃圾填埋场和煤矿排放的变化，是反演估计排放量相应下降（24%）的两倍多。反演结果表明，英国已经履行了其在《京都议定书》中的承诺（-12.5%），但幅度（-14.3%）小于报告的幅度（-17.3%）。除去英国的欧洲西北部的反演结果在趋势上表现出合理的一致性，N2O的平均反演结果低25%，CH4的平均反演结果高21%。
Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have strong radiative properties in the Earth's atmosphere and both are regulated through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Through this convention the United Kingdom is obliged to report an inventory of annual emission estimates from 1990. This paper describes a methodology that estimates emissions of CH4 and N2O completely independent of the inventory values. Emissions have been estimated for each year 1990-2007 for the United Kingdom and for NW Europe. The methodology combines high-frequency observations from Mace Head, a monitoring site on the west coast of Ireland, with an atmospheric dispersion model and an inversion system. The sensitivities of the inversion method to the modeling assumptions are reported. The 20 year Northern Hemisphere midlatitude baseline mixing ratios, growth rates, and seasonal cycles of both gases are also presented. The results indicate reasonable agreement between the inventory and inversion results for the United Kingdom for N2O over the entire period. For CH4 the agreement is poor in the 1990s but good in the 2000s. The UK CH4 inventory reported reduction from 1990-1992 to 2005-2007 (over 50%) is dominated by changes to landfill and coal mine emissions and is more than double the corresponding drop in the inversion estimated emissions (24%). The inversion results suggest that the United Kingdom has met its Kyoto commitment (-12.5%) but by a smaller margin (-14.3%) than reported (-17.3%). The results for NW Europe with the United Kingdom removed show reasonable agreement in trend, on average the inversion results for N2O are 25% lower and for CH4 21% higher.