Estimates of Hurricane Wind Speeds by “Peaks Over Threshold” Method
Estimates of Hurricane Wind Speeds by “Peaks Over Threshold” Method
复制标题
通过“峰值超过阈值”方法估算飓风风速
DOI：
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Whalen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Heckert;E. Simiu;T. Whalen
我们报告的结果支持了这样的假设：极端飓风风速主要由逆威布尔分布来描述，该分布的上尾部有限。这与大气科学文献最近报道的结果一致，该文献发现，从物理角度来看，飓风的最大强度是有限的。我们的结果中典型的抽样误差是由相对较短的历史记录长度（大约一百年，即任何一个地点发生几十次飓风事件）控制的，并且实际上与任何指定地点的模拟数据样本的大小是否为 1,000 或更大的量级无关。根据我们的估计，一方面，与 ASCE 标准 7-95 中规定的温带风暴地区和飓风多发地区的标称极限风荷载相对应的风速平均复发间隔在风险方面是相互不一致的。
We report results that lend support to the hypothesis that extreme hurricane wind speeds are described predominantly by reverse Weibull distributions, which have limited upper tails. This is consistent with the results reported recently in the atmospheric sciences literature which finds that, on physical grounds, hurricanes have finite maximum intensity. The sampling errors typical of our results are controlled by the relatively short length of the historical record (about one hundred years, i.e., a few tens of hurricane events for any one location) and are, in practice, independent of whether the size of the simulated data samples for any specified location is of the order of 1,000 or larger. According to our estimates, mean recurrence intervals of wind speeds corresponding to nominal ultimate wind loads specified in the ASCE standard 7-95 for extratropical storm regions on the one hand, and hurricane-prone regions on the other hand, are mutually inconsistent with respect to risk.