Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x
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发表时间：
2019-12-19
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Chipperfield, M. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dhomse, S. S.;Feng, W.;Chipperfield, M. P.
南极臭氧空洞的规模正在缩小，但这种恢复将受到大气变化和氯化源气体排放的任何意外变化的影响。在这里，使用模型模拟，我们表明，臭氧洞将在2065年基本上停止发生，遵守蒙特利尔议定书。如果2002年的异常气象重演，根据某些指标，最早可能在2020年代初出现无臭氧空洞年。最近发现的CFC-11排放量增加了13千兆克/年，这可能会推迟恢复。到目前为止，对臭氧的影响很小，但如果这些排放表明生产用于泡沫塑料用途，今后可能会有更多的CFC-11泄漏。假设这种生产持续10年，臭氧洞的消失将推迟几年，尽管存在很大的不确定性。如果今后继续大量排放67千兆克/年的氟氯化碳-11，将使南极臭氧的恢复推迟十多年。
The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of similar to 13 Gg yr(-1) may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr(-1) would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.