Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models
Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models
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RMIP模型对中国极端气候的集合评价与预测
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5315
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Congbin Fu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaorui Niu;Shuyu Wang;Jianping Tang;Dong‐Kyou Lee;William J. Gutowski;Koji Dairaku;John L. McGregor;Jack Katzfey;Xuejie Gao;Jia Wu;Song-You Hong;Yuqing Wang;Hidetaka Sasaki;Congbin Fu
在区域气候模式比对项目（RMIP III）的框架下，利用6个区域气候模式（RCMs）和2个全球气候模式（GCMs）的模拟结果，采用2种集合方法，生成了中国当前和未来的极端气候指数。所有模式都合理地捕捉到了观测到的极端气候，基于性能的集合平均（PEA）优于单个模式和控制气候的等加权平均（MME）。然而，在复杂地形的地区，温度极值显着的冷不足，过于频繁的强降水强度较小的模拟使用多模式集成。在2041-2060年的A1 B情景下，预计最高温度的第90百分位数（Tmax 90 p）和最低温度的第10百分位数（Tmin 10 p）将普遍增加，冬季的增幅大于夏季。除内蒙古外，中国各地的极端降水强度预计会更大。由于气候模式预测结果的大小和符号不一致，在预测的平均日较差（Trange）、降水量超过10 mm的天数（R10）和最大连续干旱日数（CDD）中存在较大的不确定性，甚至在某些地区两种集合方法的预测结果出现相反的符号。
Under the framework of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP III), simulation results from six regional climate models (RCMs) and two global climate models (GCMs) were used to generate climate extreme indices for the present and future over China using two ensemble methods. All the models reasonably captured the observed climate extremes, and performance‐based ensemble averaging (PEA) outperformed the individual model and equal‐weighted averaging (MME) for the control climate. However, noticeable cold deficiencies in temperature extremes were found over areas with complex topography, and too frequent heavy precipitation at smaller intensities was simulated using the multiple model ensembles. Under the A1B scenario for 2041–2060, widespread increases in the 90th percentiles of the maximum temperatures (Tmax90p) and the 10th percentile of the minimum temperatures (Tmin10p) were projected, with larger increases in winter than in summer. Greater intensities in precipitation extremes were projected over China, with the exception of Inner Mongolia. Large uncertainties exist in the projected mean diurnal temperature range (Trange), number of days with precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10) and the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) because of disagreements in both the magnitudes and signs of the climate model projections, and even the two ensemble methods presented opposite signs over some regions.