Whole Number Bias in Children's Probability Judgments

Whole Number Bias in Children's Probability Judgments
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儿童概率判断中的整数偏差

DOI:
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发表时间:
2018
期刊:
Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society
影响因子:
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通讯作者:
Fei Xu
Fei Xu
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
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作者:
Shaun O'Grady;Fei Xu

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简单的概率判断充斥着人类的经验。几十年的研究揭示了儿童和成人在简单随机抽签预测中的启发式错误模式。参与者通常根据目标或非目标集的大小进行选择,而不将这两个量联系起来。在一系列的实验中,我们证明,这种偏见是强大的定时和不定时的任务(实验1),并可能会克服当孩子得到足够的数量和类型的反馈(实验2)。
Simple probability judgments pervade human experience. Decades of research have revealed a pattern of heuristic errors in simple random draw predictions of both children and adults. Participants often make their choice based on the magnitude of the target or the non-target set without relating the two quantities. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that this bias is robust in both timed and untimed tasks (Experiment 1) and may be overcome when the child is given the adequate amount and type of feedback (Experiment 2).
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