Unpredictability and chance in scientific progress
Unpredictability and chance in scientific progress
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科学进步的不可预测性和偶然性
DOI：
10.2201/niipi.2007.4.1
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
John Meurig Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
John Meurig Thomas
解释过去比预测未来容易得多，尤其是在处理科学的变迁时。例如，直到1960年才出现的激光器，可以在几十年前由敏锐的物理学家根据爱因斯坦1917年关于电子能级中粒子数反转的经典论文组装起来。同样，一个广泛阅读的，以医学为导向的工程师或计算机科学家，知道Radon在莱比锡的工作，也是在1917年，可以预见并加速断层扫描技术的到来，以及它对医学革命所做的一切。在这篇文章中，我列举了一些设备、技术、程序和理论的例子，这些例子展示了各种不同的起源和随后的发展。在某些情况下，进展非常迅速，在其他情况下则非常缓慢;在一些情况下，机会和巧合的因素发挥了至关重要的作用。除了计算机本身之外，很少有电子设备对实验科学的进步和人类之间的社会互动产生比电荷耦合器件（CCD）更深刻的影响。它从根本上改变了整个观测天文学以及陆地和海洋生物学的很大一部分。纳米科学的研究和应用不亚于纳米技术的进步，同样也因CCD而发生了革命性的变化，CCD是一种超灵敏的探测器，可以拾取从红外线到可见光、紫外线甚至X射线的极低水平的光。它的灵敏度比最灵敏的感光板高一千倍以上，这就是为什么它现在是现代数码相机和摄像机、光学扫描仪和摄像机以及光谱仪、传真机和其他高性能成像设备的基础，这些设备现在是移动的手机的一部分。(One百万chil-
It is much easier to interpret the past than to predict the future, and especially so when dealing with the vicissitudes of science. The laser, for example, which did not emerge until 1960, could have been assembled decades earlier by perspicacious physicists following Einstein’s classic paper in 1917 on population inversion in electronic energy levels. Equally, a widely read, mathematically-oriented engineer or computer scientist, knowing Radon’s work in Leipzig, also in 1917, could have foreseen and accelerated the arrival of the technique of tomography, with all that it has done to revolutionize medicine. In this article, I cite examples of devices, techniques, procedures, and theories that exhibit a variety of different origins and subsequent development. In some instances progress had been extraordinary rapid, in others extremely slow; and in several the element of chance and coincidence has played a vital role. With the exception of the computer itself few electronic devices have had a more profound impact on the progress of experimental science and on social interaction among human beings than the charge coupled device, otherwise known as the CCD. It has fundamentally transformed the whole of observational astronomy and very large sections of terrestrial and marine biology. The study and application of nanoscience no less than progress in nanotechnology have likewise been revolutionized by the CCD, which is an ultrasensitive detector that picks up extremely low levels of light ranging from the infra red to the visible, the ultra violet and even X-rays. It is more than a thousand times more sensitive than the most sensitive photographic plate, which is why it is nowadays the basis of modern digital and video cameras, optical scanners and camcorders, as well as spectrometers, fax machines and other high performance imaging facilities that are these days a part of mobile phones. (One million chil-