Comprehensive risk assessment for rail transportation of dangerous goods:: a validated platform for decision support
Comprehensive risk assessment for rail transportation of dangerous goods:: a validated platform for decision support
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2004.07.017
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Kröger, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gheorghe, AV;Birchmeier, J;Kröger, W
目前，关于铁路运输危险货物的最先进和有据可查的风险评估考虑到：（i）基于电磁学的封闭频率损失，（ii）使用事件树方法作为组织工具，对特定释放情况的潜在后果进行规范，以及（iii）后果计算模型，以确定称为CCDF的风险数字（互补累积分布函数）。（例如包括关于预防措施的决策）可能只能提供有限的洞察力的原因和序列导致事故，不允许任何类型的预测分析。目前的工作介绍了一个增强的解决方案，和相关的软件平台，它试图集成的遏制损失的原因和后果与系统的基础设施和环境。该解决方案的特点是：（i）使用详细的主逻辑图，包括故障/事件树分析，以根据不同的初始事件、情景和特定的基本数据确定泄漏频率;（ii）描述泄漏情况下产生的源项;（iii）计算对相邻站点的各种潜在影响。与风险有关的结果被集成在一个软件平台上，该平台作为一个决策支持系统，使用智能地图和各种GIS（地理信息系统）数据处理程序。热点方法的引入使我们能够专注于风险最大的领域，并使用各种铁路基础设施要素（例如，点，隧道）的信息，是所采用的新模型的基础。该软件适用于任何铁路运输系统，包括其技术基础设施，机车车辆，人类行为，法规和管理程序。它提供了潜在事故情景造成的年度社会风险的确定，同时还揭示了考虑到空间参数的事故潜在原因的信息。该方法和软件已通过瑞士联邦铁路公司的一个特定的交通段的案例研究进行了验证。(c)2004爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Currently, the most advanced and well documented risk assessments for the transportation of dangerous goods by railway take into account:(i) statistics-based loss of containment frequencies,(ii) specification of potential consequences for a given release situations using event tree methodology as an organisational tool and(iii) consequence calculation models to determine a risk figure known as CCDF (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function).Such procedures for the risk assessment (including for example decision-making on preventive measures) may offer only a limited insight into the causes and sequences leading to an accident and do not allow for any kind of predictive analysis. The present work introduces an enhanced solution, and a related software platform, which attempts to integrate loss of containment causes and consequences with system's infrastructure and its environment. The solution features:(i) the use of a detailed Master Logical Diagram, including fault/event tree analysis to determine a loss of containment frequency based on different initiating events, scenarios and specific basic data,(ii) the characterization of a resulting source term following a release situation, and(iii) the calculation of various potential impacts on the neighbouring site.Results are wrapped into a CCDF format for each selected traffic segment. The risk-related results are integrated on a software platform, structured as a decision support system using intelligent maps and a variety of GIS (Geographical Information System) data processing procedures. The introduction of the hot spot approach, allows us to focus on the most risk-relevant areas and to use information on various railway infrastructure elements (e.g. points, tunnels), are the basis of the new models employed. The software is applicable to any railway transportation system, comprising its technical infrastructure, rolling stock, human actions, regulation and management procedures. It provides the determination of the annual societal risk due to potential accident scenarios, while also revealing information on the potential causes of an accident taking into account spatial parameters. The approach and software have been validated by a case study done for a particular traffic segment of the Swiss Federal Railway company. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.