Herd immunity or suppression strategy to combat COVID-19
Herd immunity or suppression strategy to combat COVID-19
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DOI：
10.3233/ch-209006
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Kuepper, J. -H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jung, F.;Krieger, V.;Kuepper, J. -H.
几个月前，严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）在中国武汉爆发，并迅速蔓延到世界各地。一些国家，如荷兰、德国、英国、瑞典和美国，最初的重点是尽可能降低对经济和社会的限制。主管当局认为-例如在瑞典仍然认为-这足以保护特别脆弱的人，如老年人或原有疾病的人。这背后的想法是，一旦60%到70%的人口感染了病原体，就会产生所谓的“群体免疫”。然而，死亡人数的增加和模型研究表明，预计医院将超负荷运转。根据总人口数，瑞典死于COVID-19的人数（每1000万居民中有2679人死亡）是德国的三倍（每8000万居民中有6848人死亡）。瑞典与台湾的比较更糟，因为瑞典的死亡人数是人口的1072倍（每2400万居民中有6人死亡）。面对缺乏抗病毒治疗和缺乏保护性疫苗，我们必须说，台湾在大流行形势下做到了最好，而瑞典则完全失败了。
Some months ago, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) broke out in Wuhan, China, and spread rapidly around the world. Some states, such as the Netherlands, Germany, Great Britain, Sweden and the USA initially focused on keeping the restrictions for economy and society as low as possible. The responsible authorities were of the opinion - and still are e.g. in Sweden - that it is sufficient enough to protect particularly vulnerable persons such as the elderly or people with pre-existing conditions. The idea behind this is that as soon as 60 to 70 percent of the population is infected with a pathogen, a so-called "herd immunity" has developed. However, the increasing numbers of deaths and modelling studies showed the expected overload of the hospitals. Therefore, most countries decided for a temporary lockdown with the exception of Sweden.Based on the number of the total population, three times more people died from COVID-19 in Sweden (2679 deaths per 10 million inhabitants) compared to Germany (6848 deaths per 80 million inhabitants). The comparison Sweden versus Taiwan is even worse because 1072 times more people died in Sweden based on the number of the population (6 deaths per 24 million inhabitants).In the face of the lack of an antiviral treatment and the lack of a protective vaccine one must state Taiwan has made the best out of the pandemic situation whereas Sweden failed completely.