A national sample of US paternity tests: do demographics predict test outcomes?
A national sample of US paternity tests: do demographics predict test outcomes?
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美国亲子鉴定的全国样本：人口统计数据可以预测测试结果吗？
DOI：
10.1111/j.1537-2995.2006.00806.x
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Filidoro,Chris
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bishai,David;Astone,Nan;Argys,Laura;Gutendorf,Robert;Filidoro,Chris
背景：美国每年进行近30万次亲子鉴定，以包括或排除男性作为孩子的生父。仅仅根据受试者的社会背景就能预测出测试结果，这一点目前还知之甚少。我们的目的是记录测试对象的人口组成，并确定如何以及种族背景和年龄预测亲子关系including.Study设计和方法：一个国家的数据库，9999亲子鉴定结果形成加权代表人口的亲子关系建立的情况下，美国。多元回归确定的优势比的一个亲子关系的基础上，人口统计学变量，如种族和年龄。结果：测试结果表明，亲子关系的包容性在72%的情况下，总体上。 在不同种族和/或民族类别中，这一百分比的变化很小，非洲裔美国人的比例最低为67%，美洲原住民的比例最高为82%，但这些差异在多变量分析中并不显著。 纳入的可能性显示出适度的，但显着的相关性与母亲的年龄增加。欧洲血统的母亲谁提名非欧洲人作为fathers.CONCLUSION：对于任何主题接受基因测试在儿童抚养办公室，预测72%的概率，该测试将显示亲子关系包含提供了良好的估计测试结果作为一个亚组估计的基础上，受试者的年龄，种族和儿童的特点。
BACKGROUND:Nearly 300,000 paternity tests are performed in the United States annually to include or exclude a male as the biological father of a child. Little is known about how well the test outcomes could be predicted simply on the basis of the subjects’ social background. Our objective is to document the demographic composition of test subjects and to determine how well ethnic background and age predict paternity inclusion.STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS:A national database of 9999 paternity test results was formed weighted to represent the population of paternity establishment cases for the United States. Multiple regression determined the odds ratio of a paternity inclusion based on demographic variables such as race and age.RESULTS:The test results indicated paternity inclusions in 72 percent of cases, overall. The percent included varied little across racial and/or ethnic categories with a low of 67 percent in African Americans and a high of 82 percent among Native Americans, but these differences were not significant in multivariate analysis. The likelihood of inclusion showed a modest but significant correlation with increased maternal age. Mothers of European origin who nominated non‐Europeans as fathers were less likely to identify the correct man as father.CONCLUSION:For any subject receiving a genetic test in a child support office, predicting a 72 percent probability that the test will show paternity inclusion offers as good an estimate of the test outcome as a subgroup estimate based on a subject’s age, race, and child characteristics.