Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River
Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River
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DOI：
10.1155/2013/929383
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发表时间：
2013-03
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Shi;Xinxin Ma;Xi Chen;S. Qu;Zhicai Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Shi;Xinxin Ma;Xi Chen;S. Qu;Zhicai Zhang
根据淮河上游沙颍河流域1951 - 2010年的实测资料，采用线性回归方法和Mann-Kendall检验，分析了流域降水量的变化趋势。进一步引入R/S分析方法，估计相应的Hurst指数，预测未来降水趋势。结果表明，整个流域不同时间序列降水量的变化趋势相对复杂且不明显。近60年来，年降水量呈小幅增加趋势，未来呈反持续趋势。38个测站的春、秋季降水量时间序列多为负趋势，夏、冬季降水量时间序列多为正趋势。结果还表明，年降水量序列在北方地区呈正趋势，在南方地区呈负趋势。此外，还分析了38个测站的H-Z和H-β的关系。结果表明，Z的绝对值越大，持续性越强。同时，由于大多数H值接近0.5，未来趋势的随机性不容忽视。
We analyzed the variation trends in precipitation according to the observed data in the Shaying River catchment, upstream of the Huai River from 1951 to 2010, using the linear regression method and Mann-Kendall test. Further study was made by introducing R/S analysis, and the corresponding Hurst Exponent was estimated to predict the future trends of rainfall. The results suggested that the changing trends in precipitation for different time series in the whole catchment were relatively complex and not obvious. The annual precipitation showed a slightly increasing trend over the past 60 years, and in the future it would be antipersistent. For the 38 rainfall stations, the trends in spring and autumn precipitation time series were mostly negative; on the contrary, the trends in summer and winter were mostly positive. The results also indicated that the annual precipitation series showed positive trends in the northern region and negative trends in the southern region. Moreover, the relationships of H-Z and H-β of the 38 stations were analyzed. The results indicated that the greater the absolute values of Z the stronger the persistent nature. Meanwhile, for most of the H values were close to 0.5, the randomness of the future trends could not be ignored.