Connection of predictability of major stratospheric sudden warmings to polar vortex geometry
Connection of predictability of major stratospheric sudden warmings to polar vortex geometry
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DOI：
10.1002/asl.595
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发表时间：
2016-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
M. Taguchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Taguchi
这项研究探索了北方冬季主要平流层突然变暖(MSSW)的可预报性变化与极地涡旋几何形状之间的可能联系。我们将日本气象厅1979年至2012年的1个月后预报与日本55年的再分析数据进行了比较。结果表明，21个实际MSSW的中期(≈14天)预报的误差变化确实取决于极涡的观测几何形状：当极涡高度伸展时，涡旋分裂MSSW的误差较大，表现为高深宽比和放大的纬向波数2分量。
This study explores a possible connection between predictability variations of major stratospheric sudden warmings (MSSWs) during Northern winter and the geometry of the polar vortex. We compare 1‐month hindcasts from 1979 to 2012 of the Japan Meteorological Agency to the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis data. Results show that error variations of medium range (≈14 day) forecasts of 21 actual MSSWs do depend on the observed geometry of the polar vortex: the errors are larger for vortex split MSSWs when the polar vortex is highly stretched as characterized by a high aspect ratio and an amplified zonal wavenumber 2 component.