Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model.
Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model.
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DOI：
10.1093/ageing/afx201
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
MODEM project
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kingston A;Robinson L;Booth H;Knapp M;Jagger C;MODEM project
预测未来疾病负担的模型侧重于一两种疾病。关于年轻队列的风险因素将如何在未来多重发病（两种或多种并发的长期疾病）的负担中发挥作用，我们知之甚少。一个动态微观模拟模型，即人口老龄化和护理模拟模型，模拟了2014-2040年期间个人的特征（社会人口因素、健康行为、慢性病和老年病）。约303，589名年龄在35岁及以上的人（2014年英格兰人口的1%随机样本），来自理解社会，英国老龄化纵向研究和认知功能和老龄化研究II。慢性病、老年病和多种疾病的患病率、患病人数和患病年数。在2015年至2035年期间，多重发病率估计将增加，患有4种以上疾病的比例几乎翻了一番（2015年：9.8%; 2035年：17.0%），患有4种以上疾病的人中有三分之二患有精神疾病（痴呆症、抑郁症、认知障碍，无痴呆症）。年龄在65-74岁之间的新入组人群中的多重发病率将上升（2015年：45.7%; 2035年：52.8%）。预期寿命的增加（男性：3.6岁，女性：2.9岁）将主要用于4种以上疾病（男性：2.4岁，65.9%;女性：2.5岁，85.2%），这是由于多种疾病的流行率增加，而不是生存时间延长。我们的研究结果表明，在今后20年中，发病率将扩大，特别是复杂的多发病率（4+疾病）。我们主张重新注重预防，并为那些有复杂的多发病的人提供适当和有效的服务。
models projecting future disease burden have focussed on one or two diseases. Little is known on how risk factors of younger cohorts will play out in the future burden of multi-morbidity (two or more concurrent long-term conditions). a dynamic microsimulation model, the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model, simulates the characteristics (sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, chronic diseases and geriatric conditions) of individuals over the period 2014–2040. about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the 2014 England population) created from Understanding Society, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II. the prevalence of, numbers with, and years lived with, chronic diseases, geriatric conditions and multi-morbidity. between 2015 and 2035, multi-morbidity prevalence is estimated to increase, the proportion with 4+ diseases almost doubling (2015:9.8%; 2035:17.0%) and two-thirds of those with 4+ diseases will have mental ill-health (dementia, depression, cognitive impairment no dementia). Multi-morbidity prevalence in incoming cohorts aged 65–74 years will rise (2015:45.7%; 2035:52.8%). Life expectancy gains (men 3.6 years, women: 2.9 years) will be spent mostly with 4+ diseases (men: 2.4 years, 65.9%; women: 2.5 years, 85.2%), resulting from increased prevalence of rather than longer survival with multi-morbidity. our findings indicate that over the next 20 years there will be an expansion of morbidity, particularly complex multi-morbidity (4+ diseases). We advocate for a new focus on prevention of, and appropriate and efficient service provision for those with, complex multi-morbidity.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.e5205
发表时间：
2012-09-03
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Smith SM;Soubhi H;Fortin M;Hudon C;O'Dowd T
通讯作者：
O'Dowd T
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Critchley, JA;Capewell, S
通讯作者：
Capewell, S
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Palladino, Raffaele;Lee, John Tayu;Millett, Christopher
通讯作者：
Millett, Christopher
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Buffel du Vaure C;Ravaud P;Baron G;Barnes C;Gilberg S;Boutron I
通讯作者：
Boutron I
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Arokiasamy P;Uttamacharya U;Jain K;Biritwum RB;Yawson AE;Wu F;Guo Y;Maximova T;Espinoza BM;Rodríguez AS;Afshar S;Pati S;Ice G;Banerjee S;Liebert MA;Snodgrass JJ;Naidoo N;Chatterji S;Kowal P
通讯作者：
Kowal P