Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project
Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.004
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发表时间：
2011-06-01
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Sendzimir, Jan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kok, Kasper;van Vliet, Mathijs;Sendzimir, Jan
社会、自然和文化体系正在迅速变化，影响着欧洲淡水的未来。决定这一未来的驱动因素之一是《水框架指令》的实施。参与式情景开发非常适合世界发展论坛提出的挑战，即通过让利益攸关方参与来发展长期观点。在这篇文章中，我们分析了一系列利益攸关方研讨会的过程和结果，以制定泛欧洲一级的情景。具体地说，我们的目标是分析将回溯方法和探索性场景开发过程相结合的方法和结果。首先，根据一系列现有的欧洲情景，开发了四个试探性情景(叙事故事情节)。结果符合预期；这个过程产生了复杂、完整和丰富的细节故事。在回溯演练中，构建了四条时间表，每条时间表都以一个试探性情景为背景。回溯过程确定了实现这些时间表的大量障碍和机会，从而与试探性方案建立了牢固的联系。对所有回溯演员的分析得出了15个稳健要素的清单，即在所有试探性方案中可能有效的要素。一份利益攸关方问卷显示，总体来说，人们对这一过程和结果普遍感到满意。利益攸关方对总体方法和试探性方案感到满意，对回溯工作和由此产生的强有力的战略更为关键。最重要的是，我们希望已经证明，将探索性场景开发和回溯分析结合起来在概念上是有吸引力的，在方法上是可行的，并且在实践中是有用的。(C)2011 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。
Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.