Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x
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发表时间：
2021-04
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
G. Meehl;J. Richter;H. Teng;A. Capotondi;K. Cobb;F. Doblas-Reyes;M. Donat;M. England;J. Fyfe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Meehl;J. Richter;H. Teng;A. Capotondi;K. Cobb;F. Doblas-Reyes;M. Donat;M. England;J. Fyfe
初始化地球系统预测是通过在尽可能与观测结果一致的状态下启动数值预测模型并将其向前运行长达 10 年来进行的。从次季节到季节 (S2S)、季节到年际 (S2I) 和季节到十年 (S2D) 等时间片段的熟练预测为从农业到水资源管理到人类和基础设施安全的各个利益相关者提供了有用的信息。在这篇综述中，我们研究了影响可预测性的过程，并讨论了 S2S、S2I 和 S2D 时间尺度的技能估计。有令人鼓舞的迹象表明可以做出熟练的预测：在 S2S 时间尺度上，人们已经有了一些预测马登-朱利安涛动和北大西洋涛动的技巧； S2I，预测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动；在 S2D 上，预测北大西洋地区的海洋和大气变化。然而，挑战仍然存在，未来的工作必须优先考虑减少模型误差，更有效地向用户传达预测，以及增加流程和机制的理解，从而增强预测技能，进而增强信心。随着数值模型向地球系统模型发展，初始预测范围不断扩大，包括海冰、空气污染以及陆地和海洋生物化学的预测，这可以为社会和各个利益相关者带来明显的利益。
Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for up to 10 years. Skilful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, ranging from agriculture to water resource management to human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skilful predictions can be made: on S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden–Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; on S2I, in predicting the El Niño–Southern Oscillation; and on S2D, in predicting ocean and atmosphere variability in the North Atlantic region. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritize reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could enhance predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth System models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea ice, air pollution, and terrestrial and ocean biochemistry that can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.