Absolute and relative biases in estimations of personal risk
Absolute and relative biases in estimations of personal risk
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1559-1816.1996.tb01778.x
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发表时间：
1996-07-16
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Weinstein, ND
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rothman, AJ;Klein, WM;Weinstein, ND
两项研究检验了个人风险估计的准确性，这是通过比较大学生的平均估计和受过大学教育的个人的人口统计来确定的。研究1表明，乐观偏见（人们倾向于认为自己的风险比普通人小）的出现更多是因为人们高估了普通人的风险，而不是低估了自己的风险。在研究2中，受试者在看到真实值的150%、100%或50%的风险统计数据后对其风险进行评分。受试者的估计随着比较统计数据的减少而下降，好像受试者试图保持他们“低于平均水平”的状态，但他们的变化比统计数据小，与50%的值相比，实际上是悲观的。对旨在影响风险认知的干预措施的影响进行了讨论。
Two studies examined the accuracy of personal risk estimates, as determined by comparing mean estimates made by college students with population statistics for college-educated individuals. Study 1 suggested that optimistic biases (the tendency for people to think they are less at risk than the average person) arise more because people overestimating the average person's risk than because they underestimate their own risk. In Study 2, subjects rated their risk after being presented with risk statistics that were 150%, 100%, or 50% of the true values. Subjects' estimates decreased with decreases in the comparison statistics, as if subjects attempted to preserve their ''below-average'' status, but they changed less than did the statistics and were actually pessimistic in comparison to the 50% values. Implications for interventions designed to influence risk perceptions are discussed.