Driving propensity and vehicle lifetime mileage: A quantile regression approach
Driving propensity and vehicle lifetime mileage: A quantile regression approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111499
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发表时间：
2021-01-15
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Kagawa, Shigemi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaneko, Mitsuki;Kagawa, Shigemi
本研究旨在确定机动车寿命与寿命里程之间的关系，同时考虑驾驶员的驾驶倾向及其对车辆CO2排放的影响。为此，我们分析了两种类型的车辆的寿命里程和车辆寿命之间的关系;混合动力车和汽油车。我们还采用分位数回归方法来估计驾驶员的驾驶倾向对终生里程的影响。通过基于驾驶员驾驶倾向的CO2排放估算，分析了驾驶倾向对机动车CO2排放的影响。我们的研究结果表明，对于驾驶距离较长的驾驶员，平均里程的减少率随着车龄的增加而增加。此外，考虑到行驶里程的减少，我们的分析结果显示，在假设年平均行驶里程不变的情况下计算的累积CO2排放量被高估了。因此，普锐斯的实际生命周期二氧化碳排放量小于以前的研究报告，这使我们得出结论，混合动力车比以前认为的更环保。然而，Premio作为传统汽油车的价格大约是它的两倍。我们建议，车辆生命周期评估应考虑到每年减少里程证明在这项研究中。
This study aims to determine the relationship between motor vehicle lifetime and lifetime mileage, while considering drivers' propensity to drive and its effects on vehicle CO2 emissions. To do this, we analyze the relationship between lifetime mileage and vehicle lifetime for two vehicle types; a hybrid and a gasoline vehicle. We also employ a quantile regression approach to estimate the effects of drivers' propensity to drive on lifetime mileage. By estimating the CO2 emissions based on driver's propensity to drive, we analyze the effects of propensity to drive on vehicle CO2 emissions. Our results show that, for drivers who drive longer distances, the rate of decrease in average mileage grows as the vehicle age increases. Further, the results of our analysis, which considers this decrease in mileage, show that the cumulative CO2 emissions calculated under the assumption of uniform average annual mileage have been overestimated. The actual lifecycle CO2 emissions for the Prius are therefore smaller than previously reported by the previous studies, leading us to conclude that the hybrid is a more environmentally friendly vehicle than previously thought. Those of the Premio as a conventional gasoline vehicle, however, is approximately twice that. We suggest that vehicle lifecycle assessments should take into account the annual decrease in mileage demonstrated in this study.