Crime, deterrence, and right-to-carry concealed handguns
Crime, deterrence, and right-to-carry concealed handguns
复制标题
DOI：
10.1086/467988
复制
发表时间：
1997-01-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Mustard, DB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lott, JR;Mustard, DB
利用1977年至1992年美国各县的横截面时间序列数据，我们发现，允许公民携带隐蔽武器可以阻止暴力犯罪，而不会增加意外死亡人数。如果那些没有隐蔽枪支持有权规定的州在1992年采纳了这些规定，县和州一级的数据表明，每年将避免大约1500起谋杀案。同样，我们预测强奸案将减少4,000多起，抢劫将减少11,000多起，严重袭击将减少60,000多起。我们还发现，犯罪分子代入了涉及隐形的财产犯罪，在这些犯罪分子与受害者之间接触的可能性最小。此外，较高的逮捕率和定罪率持续减少犯罪率。1992年，所有其他州通过这些法律估计每年至少获得57.4亿美元的收益。额外的隐蔽手枪许可证每年产生的社会效益高达5000美元。
Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. counties from 1977 to 1992, we find that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes, without increasing accidental deaths. If those states without right-to-carry concealed gun provisions had adopted them in 1992, county- and state-level data indicate that approximately 1,500 murders would have been avoided yearly. Similarly, we predict that rapes would have declined by over 4,000, robbery by over 11,000, and aggravated assaults by over 60,000. We also find criminals substituting into property crimes involving stealth, where the probability of contact between the criminal and the victim is minimal. Further, higher arrest and conviction rates consistently reduce crime. The estimated annual gain from all remaining states adopting these laws was at least $5.74 billion in 1992. The annual social benefit from an additional concealed handgun permit is as high as $5,000.