Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.
Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.neuron.2016.03.025
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发表时间：
2016-05-04
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Kepecs A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sanders JI;Hangya B;Kepecs A
人类的信心判断被认为起源于元认知过程，提供了一个人的信念的主观评估。或者，在数学中，置信度被定义为一个客观的统计量：所选假设正确的估计概率。尽管有类似的术语，但仍不清楚主观的信心感觉是否与客观的信心统计计算有关。为了解决这个问题，我们收集了来自人类执行感知和基于知识的心理测量决策任务的信心报告。我们观察到两个违反直觉的模式，信心的选择和证据：明显的过度自信的选择的基础上无信息的证据，和错误的选择，信心随着证据强度的增加而下降。我们表明，这些模式合法出现时，统计信心合格的决定。此外，统计置信度定量地解释了人类对我们任务的信心，而不需要启发式操作。因此，我们认为，人类的信心源于心理计算的统计信心。
Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one’s beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the estimated probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and for erroneous choices, that confidence decreased with increasing evidence strength. We show that these patterns lawfully arise when statistical confidence qualifies a decision. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence.