What Does Measured FDI Actually Measure
What Does Measured FDI Actually Measure
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衡量的 FDI 实际上衡量什么
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Julien Acalin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Blanchard;Julien Acalin
外国直接投资（FDI）--无论是兼并和收购还是从头开始的“格林菲尔德”企业--通常被认为反映了基于长期因素的决定。关于资本流动的传统看法认为，外国直接投资流入是“良好的流动”，而对投资组合和其他流动的评估则比较模糊。在考虑对资本流动的限制时，研究人员和决策者的第一反应是希望排除外国直接投资流入。Blanchard和Acelin发现，国际收支中衡量的外国直接投资流量实际上与对外国直接投资的描述大不相同。他们的分析表明，FDI流入和流出高度相关，即使是在高频率和使用不同方法的情况下，流入新兴市场经济体的FDI似乎也会对美国货币政策利率做出反应，即使是在高频率。根据这些发现，他们得出两个结论。首先，在许多国家，很大一部分被衡量的外国直接投资流入量只是在通往最终目的地的途中进出该国的流量，部分原因是有利的公司税收条件。其次，其中一些衡量的外国直接投资流量更接近于证券债务流量，反映了美国货币政策条件的短期波动，而不是该国的中期基本面。这两个结论都对研究人员和政策制定者应该如何思考资本管制以及将可衡量的外国直接投资排除在此类管制之外具有影响。
Foreign direct investment (FDI)—whether mergers and acquisitions or “greenfield” ventures built from the ground up—is generally thought of as reflecting decisions based on long-run factors. Conventional wisdom on capital flows holds that FDI inflows are “good flows,” while assessments of portfolio and other flows are more ambiguous. When considering restrictions on capital flows, the first reaction of researchers and policymakers is to want to exclude FDI inflows. Blanchard and Acelin find that FDI flows measured in the balance of payments are actually quite different from this depiction of FDI. Their analysis reveals that FDI inflows and outflows are highly correlated, even at high frequency and using different methodologies, and that FDI flows to emerging-market economies appear to respond to the US monetary policy rate, even at high frequency. Based on these findings they reach two conclusions. First, in many countries, a large proportion of measured FDI inflows are just flows going in and out of the country on their way to their final destination, with the stop due in part to favorable corporate tax conditions. Second, some of these measured FDI flows are much closer to portfolio debt flows, responding to short-run movements in US monetary policy conditions rather than to medium-run fundamentals of the country. Both these conclusions have implications for how researchers and policymakers should think about capital controls and the exclusion of measured FDI from such controls.