Uncertainty analysis of downscaling methods in assessing the influence of climate change on hydrology
Uncertainty analysis of downscaling methods in assessing the influence of climate change on hydrology
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评估气候变化对水文影响的降尺度方法的不确定性分析
DOI：
10.1007/s00477-013-0796-9
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发表时间：
2014-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
ZHU Y et al
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
OU Y;LÜ H;ZHU Y et al
将统计降尺度模型、自动统计降尺度方法、变化因子方法、改进的变化因子方法和天气发生器方法应用于淮河上游流域。区域气候情景和水文变量的变化进行了比较，在未来的时期，调查与降尺度技术的不确定性。采用配对样本T检验评价观测数据与未来降尺度数据均值差异的显著性。采用新安江流域径流模型对流域径流关系进行了模拟。结果表明，本文所用的降尺度技术预测在未来的趋势增加。最高温度（Tmax）的增加范围在3.7和4.7 ° C之间，直到2070 - 2099（2080s）的时间段。而最低气温（Tmin）的上升幅度在2.8~4.9 ° C之间，直至2080年代。本文提出的研究确定，在未来，对于超过阈值的峰值（在论文中讨论）预测会增加，并且对于低于阈值的峰值（在论文中讨论）预测会减少，这说明温度在未来会逐渐上升。降水量的变化不像气温变化那样明显，而且往往受季节的影响。大多数降尺度技术预测增加，而其他则指示减少。年平均降水量变幅在3.2%~53.3%之间，且随季节变化。
Five downscaling techniques, namely the statistical downscaling model, the automated statistical downscaling method, the change factor (CF) method, the advanced CF method, the Weather generator (LarsWG5) method, are applied to the upstream basin of the Huaihe River. Changes in regional climate scenarios and hydrology variables are compared in future periods to investigate the uncertainty associated with the downscaling techniques. Paired-sampleTtest is applied to evaluation the significant of the difference of the means between the observed data and the downscaled data in the future. The Xinanjiang rainfall–runoff model is employed to simulate the rainfall–runoff relation. The results demonstrate that the downscaling techniques utilized herein predict an increased tendency in the future. The increases range of maximum temperature (Tmax) is between 3.7 and 4.7 °C until the time period of 2070–2099 (2080s). While, the increases range of minimum temperature (Tmin) is between 2.8 and 4.9 °C until 2080s. The research presented herein determined that there is an increase predicted for the peaks over threshold (discussed in the paper) and a decrease predicted for the peaks below the threshold (discussed in the paper) in the future, which illustrates that the temperature would rise gradually in the future. Precipitation changes are not as obvious as temperatures changes and tend to be influence by the season. Most downscaling techniques predict increases, and others indict decreases. The annual mean precipitation range changes between 3.2 and 53.3 %, and moreover, these changes vary from season to season.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
1995
期刊：
Acta Crystallographica Section E: Structure Reports Online
影响因子：
--
作者：
REN-JUN Zhao;Zuang YI-LIN;XIN-REN Liu
通讯作者：
REN-JUN Zhao;Zuang YI-LIN;XIN-REN Liu
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Khan, MS;Coulibaly, P;Dibike, Y
通讯作者：
Dibike, Y
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
R. Wilby;L. Hay;G. Leavesley
通讯作者：
R. Wilby;L. Hay;G. Leavesley
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
G. Kiely
通讯作者：
G. Kiely
利用新安江降雨径流模型和双状态参数估计方法进行径流估计
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Lu, Haishen;Hou, Ting;Horton, Robert;Zhu, Yonghua;Chen, Xi;Jia, Yangwen;Wang, Wen;Fu, Xiaolei
通讯作者：
Fu, Xiaolei