Rebuilding global fisheries under uncertainty
Rebuilding global fisheries under uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1902657116
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发表时间：
2019-08-06
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Boettiger, Carl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Memarzadeh, Milad;Britten, Gregory L.;Boettiger, Carl
目前和未来成功重建全球渔业的前景仍然存在争议，原因是种群状况不确定，管理成功率可变，以及破坏性的环境变化。虽然科学家通常会在人口模型中解释这种不确定性，但将其转化为决策和政策的机制是有问题的，可能导致无意的过度开发。在这里，我们明确跟踪测量的不确定性和环境变化在制定捕捞配额的决策过程中的作用。通过分析来自所有海洋的109个样本种群，我们发现，目前的做法平均可以实现55%的恢复，而从机器人技术中借鉴的更丰富的决策方法可以在本世纪中叶实现85%的全球种群恢复，更高的经济回报，以及对环境意外的更大鲁棒性。这些结果挑战了仅通过现有方法就可以重建全球渔业的共识，同时也强调，重建种群仍然可以通过改进决策工具来实现，这些工具可以最佳地管理这种不确定性。
Current and future prospects for successfully rebuilding global fisheries remain debated due to uncertain stock status, variable management success, and disruptive environmental change. While scientists routinely account for some of this uncertainty in population models, the mechanisms by which this translates into decision-making and policy are problematic and can lead to unintentional overexploitation. Here, we explicitly track the role of measurement uncertainty and environmental variation in the decision-making process for setting catch quotas. Analyzing 109 well-sampled stocks from all oceans, we show that current practices may attain 55% recovery on average, while richer decision methods borrowed from robotics yield 85% recovery of global stocks by midcentury, higher economic returns, and greater robustness to environmental surprises. These results challenge the consensus that global fisheries can be rebuilt by existing approaches alone, while also underscoring that rebuilding stocks may still be achieved by improved decision-making tools that optimally manage this uncertainty.