An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world
An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2827
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Rumbold, Steven T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allen, Robert J.;Landuyt, William;Rumbold, Steven T.
大气气溶胶具有重要的环境意义，因为它们对空气质量的影响，以及它们改变地球辐射平衡的能力。最近关于气候变化对空气质量的影响以及气溶胶在大气中更广泛分布的研究显示了重要但不一致的结果，包括影响的迹象（1-3）。使用一套最先进的气候模式，我们表明，气候变化与负气溶胶气候反馈-0.02到-0.09 W m（-2）K-1的直接辐射效应，与更大的值可能是间接辐射效应。这与大多数气溶胶种类的增加有关，特别是在热带和北方中纬度地区，这主要是由于陆地上大规模降水减少导致湿沉降减少。虽然全球气候模式中的气溶胶过程模拟具有不确定性，我们得出的结论是，气候变化可能会增加气溶胶负担和地面浓度，这可能会对未来的空气质量。
Atmospheric aerosols are of significant environmental importance, due to their effects on air quality, as well as their ability to alter the planet's radiative balance. Recent studies characterizing the effects of climate change on air quality and the broader distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere show significant, but inconsistent results, including the sign of the effect(1-3). Using a suite of state-of-the-art climate models, we show that climate change is associated with a negative aerosol-climate feedback of -0.02 to -0.09 W m(-2) K-1 for direct radiative effects, with much larger values likely for indirect radiative effects. This is related to an increase in most aerosol species, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, largely due to a decrease in wet deposition associated with less large-scale precipitation over land. Although simulation of aerosol processes in global climate models possesses uncertainty, we conclude that climate change may increase aerosol burden and surface concentration, which may have implications for future air quality.