The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe
The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.1201224
复制
发表时间：
2011-04-08
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barriopedro, David;Fischer, Erich M.;Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo
在东欧和俄罗斯大部分地区，2010年夏天非常温暖。我们提供的证据表明，造成不利影响的2010年温暖，超过了2003年最热的夏季的幅度和空间范围。“ Mega-Heatwaves”，例如2003年和2010年的事件，可能破坏了500年的季节性温度记录超过了500年约占欧洲的50％。根据区域多模型实验，在未来40年内，夏季经历大型热量的可能性将增加5至10倍。然而，2010年活动的幅度是如此极端，以至于尽管有这样的增长，但在同一地区的模拟可能性仍然很低，直到21世纪下半叶。
The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events likely broke the 500-year-long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing mega-heatwaves will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, the likelihood of an analog over the same region remains fairly low until the second half of the 21st century.