Anthropogenic warming of Earth's climate system
Anthropogenic warming of Earth's climate system
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1058154
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发表时间：
2001-04-13
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Broccoli, AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Levitus, S;Antonov, JI;Broccoli, AJ
我们比较了 20 世纪下半叶世界海洋、全球大气和地球冰冻圈组成部分的热含量的时间变化。每个组成部分都增加了其热含量（大气和海洋）或表现出融化（冰冻圈）。据估计，在 1950 年代至 1990 年代期间，观测到的全球海洋热含量（深度范围为 0 至 3000 米）的增幅至少比任何其他成分的热含量增幅大一个数量级。使用大气-海洋环流模型进行的模拟结果，包括对过去一个世纪观测到的温室气体、硫酸盐气溶胶、太阳辐照度和火山气溶胶的时间变化的辐射效应的估计，与我们基于观测的对海洋愈合含量增加的估计一致。我们提出的结果表明，观察到的海洋热含量的增加可能很大程度上是由于地球大气中人为气体的增加造成的。
We compared the temporal variability of the heat content of the world ocean, of the global atmosphere, and of components of Earth's cryosphere during the Latter half of the 20th century. Each component has increased its heat content (the atmosphere and the ocean) or exhibited melting (the cryosphere). The estimated increase of observed global ocean heat content lover the depth range from 0 to 3000 meters) between the 1950s and 1990s is at least one order of magnitude Larger than the increase in heat content of any other component. Simulation results using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model that includes estimates of the radiative effects of observed temporal variations in greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols over the past century agree with our observation-based estimate of the increase in ocean heal content. The results we present suggest that the observed increase in ocean heat content may largely be due to the increase of anthropogenic gases in Earth's atmosphere.