Spring frost risk in a changing climate
Spring frost risk in a changing climate
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DOI：
10.1029/2008gl033955
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发表时间：
2008-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
J. R. Rigby;A. Porporato
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. R. Rigby;A. Porporato
虽然在未来的气候情景中，每日温度的平均值和方差都预测会增加，但春季霜冻对植被风险的研究依赖于平均温度的变化来了解这些情景中的霜冻风险。我们提出了一个基于温度-物候耦合模型的随机交叉特性的春季霜冻风险概率模型，其中春季温度的平均值，方差和自相关结构可以通过独立的参数来控制。模型结果表明，霜冻风险植被是敏感的增加，在每日温度变化（增加霜冻风险）的平均温度的增加（减少霜冻风险）。
While both the mean and variance of daily temperature are forecasted to increase in future climate scenarios, studies of spring frost risk to vegetation have relied on changes in mean temperature to understand frost risk in these scenarios. We present a probabilistic model of spring frost risk based on the stochastic‐crossing properties of a coupled temperature‐phenology model in which the mean, variance, and autocorrelation structure of spring temperature may be controlled through independent parameters. The model results show that frost risk to vegetation is as sensitive to increases in daily temperature variance (which increases frost risk) as to increases in the mean temperature (which decreases frost risk).