Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model
Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-015-1117-4
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Sheridan, Scott C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allen, Michael J.;Sheridan, Scott C.
研究了1975 ~ 2004年全因死亡率与极端温度事件的关系。对于美国的50个地点，这些冷热事件是根据特定地点的日平均表观温度阈值来定义的。高温日的定义为3天平均视温大于95个百分位数，而极端高温日大于975个百分位数。同样，对寒冷和极冷天气的计算依赖于第5和第2.5个百分位数。分布滞后非线性模型评估了接触后累计14天内死亡率与ETEs之间的关系。季节和持续时间效应的子集表示早期和晚期以及短期和长期te之间的差异。虽然持续时间较长的高温天气导致死亡率升高，但季节提前的事件也会影响死亡率。在整个夏季，与热有关的风险降低了，尽管长时间的高温天气仍然对死亡率有更大的影响。与炎热不同，与寒冷相关的风险在更南方的地区最大。早季寒冷事件的风险最高，并在整个冬季期间降低。从统计数据来看，短时间的寒冷显示出最高的相对风险，这表明不稳定的天气条件可能与寒冷相关的死亡率有一定关系。对于热和冷，结果表明，更极端的阈值的风险更高。风险值提供了对适应、地理变异性和环境适应的作用的进一步了解。
This study investigates the relationship between all-cause mortality and extreme temperature events (ETEs) from 1975 to 2004. For 50 U.S. locations, these heat and cold events were defined based on location-specific thresholds of daily mean apparent temperature. Heat days were defined by a 3-day mean apparent temperature greater than the 95th percentile while extreme heat days were greater than the 97.5th percentile. Similarly, calculations for cold and extreme cold days relied upon the 5th and 2.5th percentiles. A distributed lag non-linear model assessed the relationship between mortality and ETEs for a cumulative 14-day period following exposure. Subsets for season and duration effect denote the differences between early- and late-season as well as short and long ETEs. While longer-lasting heat days resulted in elevated mortality, early season events also impacted mortality outcomes. Over the course of the summer season, heat-related risk decreased, though prolonged heat days still had a greater influence on mortality. Unlike heat, cold-related risk was greatest in more southerly locations. Risk was highest for early season cold events and decreased over the course of the winter season. Statistically, short episodes of cold showed the highest relative risk, suggesting unsettled weather conditions may have some relationship to cold-related mortality. For both heat and cold, results indicate higher risk to the more extreme thresholds. Risk values provide further insight into the role of adaptation, geographical variability, and acclimatization with respect to ETEs.