The collider principle in causal reasoning: Why the Monty Hall dilemma is so hard
The collider principle in causal reasoning: Why the Monty Hall dilemma is so hard
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DOI：
10.1037/0096-3445.133.3.434
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发表时间：
2004-09-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Wieth, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burns, BD;Wieth, M
作者测试了人们发现蒙蒂霍尔困境（MHD）很难的论点，因为他们无法理解其因果结构的含义，这是一种碰撞机结构，其中2个独立的因果因素影响一个结果。在4个实验中，参与者在涉及竞争的MHD版本中表现更好，这强调了因果关系。这种操纵导致了对MHD过程问题的更正确的回答，以及改变其因果结构的反事实。对这些问题的正确回答与解决MHD相关，无论条件如何。此外，对撞机原理的培训也转移到了MHD的标准版本上。MHD挖掘了一个更深层次的问题：什么时候知道一件事就能提供另一件事的信息？
The authors tested the thesis that people find the Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) hard because they fail to understand the implications of its causal structure, a collider structure in which 2 independent causal factors influence a single outcome. In 4 experiments, participants performed better in versions of the MHD involving competition, which emphasizes causality. This manipulation resulted in more correct responses to questions about the process in the MHD and a counterfactual that changed its causal structure. Correct responses to these questions were associated with solving the MHD regardless of condition. In addition, training on the collider principle transferred to a standard version of the MHD. The MHD taps a deeper question: When is knowing about one thing informative about another?