Analyzing the control of mosquito-borne diseases by a dominant lethal genetic system
Analyzing the control of mosquito-borne diseases by a dominant lethal genetic system
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0610685104
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发表时间：
2007-05-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wein, Lawrence M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atkinson, Michael P.;Su, Zheng;Wein, Lawrence M.
由于目前控制登革热的方法失败，我们制定了一个数学模型，以评估一种策略对蚊媒病毒性疾病传播的影响，该策略释放成年雄性昆虫纯合子以获得显性，抑制的，致命的遗传性状。将该疾病传播的动态模型嵌入易感-暴露-感染-易感人类媒介流行模型中，该模型考虑了释放蚊与野生蚊之间的交配竞争、幼虫期的密度依赖竞争以及幼虫期前后的致死性特征。对于每个时间点释放的蚊子数量与成年雌蚊数量保持固定比例的特殊情况，我们导出了灭病条件和灭病所需释放蚊子的近似数量的数学公式。使用登革热数据的数值结果表明，比例政策优于释放蚊子数量保持不变的释放政策，并且在大约1年内对受影响的人口进行10(5)到10(6)的根除是可行的，尽管后勤考虑令人生畏。我们还构建了一个策略，实现了雌性蚊子种群的指数衰减；该政策释放的蚊子数量与比例政策大致相同，但实现根除的速度几乎是比例政策的两倍。
Motivated by the failure of current methods to control dengue fever, we formulate a mathematical model to assess the impact on the spread of a mosquito-borne viral disease of a strategy that releases adult male insects homozygous for a dominant, repressible, lethal genetic trait. A dynamic model for the female adult mosquito population, which incorporates the competition for female mating between released mosquitoes and wild mosquitoes, density-dependent competition during the larval stage, and realization of the lethal trait either before or after the larval stage, is embedded into a susceptible-exposed-infectious-susceptible human-vector epidemic model for the spread of the disease. For the special case in which the number of released mosquitoes is maintained in a fixed proportion to the number of adult female mosquitoes at each point in time, we derive mathematical formulas for the disease eradication condition and the approximate number of released mosquitoes necessary for eradication. Numerical results using data for dengue fever suggest that the proportional policy outperforms a release policy in which the released mosquito population is held constant, and that eradication in approximate to 1 year is feasible for affected human populations on the order of 10(5) to 10(6), although the logistical considerations are daunting. We also construct a policy that achieves an exponential decay in the female mosquito population; this policy releases approximately the same number of mosquitoes as the proportional policy but achieves eradication nearly twice as fast.