Spatio-temporal transmission and environmental determinants of Schistosomiasis Japonica in Anhui Province, China.
Spatio-temporal transmission and environmental determinants of Schistosomiasis Japonica in Anhui Province, China.
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中国安徽省日本血吸虫病的时空传播和环境决定因素。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0003470
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发表时间：
2015-02
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Jiang Q
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu Y;Li R;Bergquist R;Lynn H;Gao F;Wang Q;Zhang S;Sun L;Zhang Z;Jiang Q
在中国，日本血吸虫病仍然具有公共卫生和经济意义，特别是在长江流域的湖泊和沼泽地区，那里的传播被证明是困难的。本研究调查了安徽省日本血吸虫感染风险的时空变化，并评估了疾病与关键环境因素的相关性，目的是了解疾病的发病机制，寻找有效和可持续的血吸虫病控制线索。对安徽省中国村2000~2010年血吸虫病年度常规调查资料进行统计分析，并与环境资料相结合。使用时空克立格模型来评估这些环境因素如何影响血吸虫病风险的时空模式。结果表明，归一化植被指数(NDVI)的季节变化、日间陆地表面温度(LSTD)的季节变化以及距长江的距离与血吸虫病的风险呈显著负相关。预测图显示，血吸虫病流行维持在较低水平，血吸虫病风险主要沿长江沿线演变。血吸虫病风险也遵循局部空间格局，在时间上波动，在2005年达到峰值(空间幅度最大)，然后逐渐收缩，但到2010年呈分散分布。拟合的时空克立格模型可以捕捉血吸虫病风险在空间和时间上的变化。这种方法与地理信息系统和遥感技术相结合，促进和丰富了血吸虫病风险建模，进而有助于识别安徽省以及中国其他地区血吸虫病有效和可持续控制的优先地区。日本血吸虫病是中国最严重的寄生虫病之一。据估计，仍有超过5000万人处于危险之中，特别是那些生活在长江流域沿湖和沼泽地区的人。自20世纪50年代以来，中国政府大力实施血吸虫病控制计划。最近的两个主要方案是2001年终止的为期10年的世界银行贷款项目(WBLP)，该项目以大规模化疗为基础，以及自2005年以来实施的旨在减少牛和人类作为感染源的作用的国家综合控制战略。通过对安徽省2000-2010年日本血吸虫病流行数据的时空分析，发现血吸虫病流行仍处于较低水平，但在研究后期，疾病的空间分布呈现出广泛的分散性，表明综合规划不能完全有效地降低血吸虫病风险的空间范围。为了实现有效和可持续的控制战略，我们强调需要在血吸虫病高危地区控制蜗牛栖息地。
Schistosomiasis japonica still remains of public health and economic significance in China, especially in the lake and marshland areas along the Yangtze River Basin, where the control of transmission has proven difficult. In the study, we investigated spatio-temporal variations of S. japonicum infection risk in Anhui Province and assessed the associations of the disease with key environmental factors with the aim of understanding the mechanism of the disease and seeking clues to effective and sustainable schistosomiasis control. Infection data of schistosomiasis from annual conventional surveys were obtained at the village level in Anhui Province, China, from 2000 to 2010 and used in combination with environmental data. The spatio-temporal kriging model was used to assess how these environmental factors affected the spatio-temporal pattern of schistosomiasis risk. Our results suggested that seasonal variation of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), seasonal variation of land surface temperature at daytime (LSTD), and distance to the Yangtze River were negatively significantly associated with risk of schistosomiasis. Predictive maps showed that schistosomiasis prevalence remained at a low level and schistosomiasis risk mainly evolved along the Yangtze River. Schistosomiasis risk also followed a focal spatial pattern, fluctuating temporally with a peak (the largest spatial extent) in 2005 and then contracting gradually but with a scattered distribution until 2010. The fitted spatio-temporal kriging model can capture variations of schistosomiasis risk over space and time. Combined with techniques of geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), this approach facilitates and enriches risk modeling of schistosomiasis, which in turn helps to identify prior areas for effective and sustainable control of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province and perhaps elsewhere in China. Schistosomiasis japonica is one of the most serious parasitic diseases in China. It is estimated that more than 50 million people are still at risk, especially those living in the lake and marshland areas along the Yangtze River Basin. The Chinese government has made great efforts to implement schistosomiasis control programs since 1950s. The latest, major two programs are the 10-year World Bank Loan Project (WBLP) terminated in 2001, which was based on large-scale chemotherapy, and the national integrated control strategy implemented since 2005, which was aimed at reducing the roles of bovines and humans as infection sources. Based on spatio-temporal analyses of the S. japonicum infection prevalence data during 2000–2010 in Anhui Province, we found schistosomiasis prevalence remained at a low level but the spatial distribution of the disease became widely scattered at the later stage of the study period, suggesting that the integrated program could not fully effectively reduce the spatial extent of schistosomiasis risk. To achieve an effective and sustainable control strategy, we emphasize the need to control snail habitats within areas of high schistosomiasis risk.